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Alabama and Kansas State will kick off a massive day in college football when they face off in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Both teams have 10 wins on the season, with the Wildcats claiming a Big 12 Championship over the TCU Horned Frogs.
This is an exciting matchup because we hear so much about the dominance of the SEC across the college football landscape.
However, the Wildcats have been very competitive this season, and I think their offense might have a pivotal role to play regarding the total on Saturday afternoon.
Alabama vs. Kansas State odds
Spread: ALA -6.5 (-115) vs. KSU +6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: ALA (-275) vs. KSU (+220)
Total: Over 55.5 (-114) | Under 55.5 (-106)
Alabama vs. Kansas State pick
Over 55.5
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Alabama vs. Kansas State analysis
The closer you get to play on New Year’s Eve, the greater the likelihood that your team is involved in one of college football’s marquee bowl games.
With a 10-2 record, the Crimson Tide narrowly missed a chance to compete for a national championship.
Alabama finished fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings, with the Committee deciding against having a two-loss program as one of the final four teams.
Who can forget Alabama head coach Nick Saban making the rounds on television during the conference championships while his team sat at home and watched just like the rest of us?
Frankly, Alabama has often gotten the benefit of the doubt in just about every circumstance, so I’m glad to see another team such as TCU get a chance to compete for a title.
Nonetheless, the Sugar Bowl is still very prestigious, and Saban will be pleased that none of his players with NFL aspirations chose to opt out of the game.
However, according to FantasyPros, 11 players decided to enter the transfer portal.
But of course, this is Alabama we’re talking about, which means this is a team loaded with four-, and five-star players up and down the depth chart. At the very least, there’s a clear sign that the Alabama star players are engaged and committed to playing this game.
If we turn to the Wildcats, they lack the high-profile players like Alabama, so it shouldn’t be a surprise they don’t have any opt-outs.
Only two players entered the transfer portals, and both had limited roles on the team.
As far as the game, don’t expect the Wildcats to be overwhelmed in this matchup. We’ve seen teams successfully move the ball against this Alabama front seven.
According to TeamRankings, the Crimson Tide allowed 131.4 rushing yards per game after giving up 87.5 per game in the previous season.
In the red-zone defense, Alabama ranks 45th with an opponent conversion rate of 81.08%.
Thus, this doesn’t resemble the typical Saban defense we’ve seen in the past.
As for the offense, I think Alabama will put up their share of the points. Quarterback Bryce Young is arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
The Crimson Tide played only two games this season where they registered fewer than 30 points.
Kansas State can be particularly susceptible on the ground as Game on Paper ranks it 80th in total EPA (10.02) and 88th in success rate (42.1%) against the run.
That could prove telling against an Alabama team that averages 5.5 yards every time they tote the rock.
To summarize, we could be in for a high-scoring affair, as my model projects 60.86 points.
We already see some movement in the total, which initially opened at 55, so I’ll lock in the over at 55.5 points with FanDuel.