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Sports Betting

Arsenal vs. Southampton odds, prediction: look to first-half markets

Action Network
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Arsenal's Martin Odegaard applauds the fans after the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Arsenal at the London stadium in London, Sunday, April 16, 2023.

Arsenal's Martin Odegaard applauds the fans after the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Arsenal at the London stadium in London, Sunday, April 16, 2023. (Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP)

Before Friday’s EPL fixture kicks off from North London, we’re set to provide an Arsenal vs. Southampton prediction.

The Gunners remain atop the Premier League entering the weekend, but have seen their gap over Manchester City, who have a game in hand, shrink to four points. Southampton, meanwhile, remains in the cellar, four points from safety with seven games left.

In the first meeting between these clubs, Southampton earned a 1-1 home draw. But, the visitors now find themselves as +1600 underdogs with Arsenal -550 on the moneyline and the draw priced at +600.

As for the total, it’s set at 3.5 goals, juiced -165 to the under.

Arsenal vs. Southampton Prediction + Best Bet

Arsenal 1H Goal-Line (-1.5, +210 | Bet to +200)

The preferred play for me is Arsenal -1 in the first half to secure push protection on a first-half victory, but this price is also worth a shot.

The perception with manager Mikel Arteta’s side is that it’s time to push the panic button, when in reality that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Sure, the league leaders have dropped points in two straight games, but both of those fixtures came away from home, where Arsenal are 0.82 expected goals worse per 90 minutes.

Now, they find themselves in a solid get-right spot against a team that has performed quite poorly away from home against top opposition.

In trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, Southampton has a -4 goal differential in the first half against a -2.37 expected goal differential, per fotmob.com. Add in trips to Brentford, Manchester United and Tottenham and bettors will find Southampton is 0-4-1 (W-L-D) in the first half against those five opponents, with their only draw coming as a result of United’s first-half red card.

Just in the visit to City, the closest comparison to Arsenal’s home quality, Southampton created a mere 0.05 xG in the first half while allowing the reigning champions to create 1.6 expected goals.

Arsenal have established themselves as a top first-half side both for the season and recently, winning the first 45 minutes in five straight fixtures and 17 of 31 this season.

But, when you shrink that 31-game sample down to their home results against inferior sides, the results are much more encouraging.

In home games against teams ranked fifth through 20th in the table, Arsenal are 7-3-2 (W-L-D), with one loss coming on a match played on short rest.

Given Arsenal will have a full week to prepare for this fixture, expect a strong start for the hosts as they look to earn all three points. Take them in the first-half -1.5 at +200 or better or -1 at +100 or better.