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Sports Betting

NFL predictions, odds: a Chicago MVP and an Offensive Rookie bet to make now

Action Network
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Texas running back Bijon Robinson runs the ball during the second half an NCAA college football game against Alabama, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Austin, Texas. Alabama won 20-19.

Texas running back Bijon Robinson runs the ball during the second half an NCAA college football game against Alabama, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Austin, Texas. Alabama won 20-19. (Michael Thomas/AP)

We’re still 127 days away from the first game of the 2023 NFL season, but it’s never too early to start making NFL predictions.

I’m taking an early look at the NFL awards market, and I believe I’ve found value in the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year markets.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

NFL Awards Prediction No. 1

MVP — Justin Fields (+2000) | Play to (+1750)

I think the Bears are primed for a breakout season.

For starters, the Bears shored up roster holes in the offseason.

On defense, Trumaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are top-10 middle linebackers, providing leadership and competency in the heart of the Bears defense. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Walker and Andrew Billings are two above-average defensive linemen.

After finishing dead last in Defense DVOA, the Bears needed defensive reinforcements. And to their credit, they reinforced the defense.

Chicago also shored up its offensive line by adding guard Nate Davis and right tackle Darnell White and picked up extra skill position weapons DJ Moore, Robert Tonyan and D’Onta Foreman.

And there is an opening to compete in the NFC North. The Lions are at the peak of their value, the Vikings are due for a monster regression season and the Packers are in trouble post-Aaron Rodgers.

Outside of that, the Bears have an easy out-of-division schedule. Their home games include Denver, Carolina, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Arizona, and they should pick up potential road wins against Tampa Bay and Washington.

Essentially, the Bears are criminally undervalued and are set to smash their win total, make the playoffs and potentially win the division.

And at the heart of that will be Justin Fields, who should have a much more competent pass-blocking offensive line (Fields was sacked a league-high 55 times in 2022) and much-improved weapons.

Additionally, Fields is set to make the classic Year 3 jump. And he still has the dual-threat ability to be one of the NFL’s highest impact players.

Imagine if Fields rushes for 1,000 yards again while quarterbacking a half-decent aerial attack for a Bears team that went from last to first in the NFC North? That’s a great narrative, and the path is wide open for Fields and Chicago.

At 20-1, Fields is worth a bet in the MVP market.

NFL Awards Prediction No. 2

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Bijan Robinson (+300) | Play to (+200)

Only the Bears rushed the ball more than the Falcons in 2022. And with Chicago adding pass-catching playmakers in the offseason, it’s fair to assume the Falcons will usurp the league rushing usage throne.

The Falcons were a legitimately effective rush attack last year; third in Rush Offense DVOA last season and fourth in Rush EPA per play, rushing for over 2,700 yards at 4.9 yards per carry.

The other part is that the Falcons don’t have a viable passing attack. Desmond Ridder is the current QB1, and the pass-catching depth chart features high-end talent (Kyle Pitts, Drake London) but little depth.

So, I expect the Falcons to run the ball a lot this upcoming season.

And first-round pick Bijon Robinson should be the undisputed top backfield option. He should get the lion’s share of carries in a well-designed rush offense.

I expect him to produce immediately. Robinson was one of the most talented running backs in Texas football history, with a lightning-quick lateral step and the ability to either slip or truck through tacklers.

Robinson rushed for over 1,500 yards last season at over six yards per carry, finishing second among all backs in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades. He ripped off over 1,000 yards after contact, recorded a 21.7% missed tackle rate and posted 21 rushes of more than 15 yards, a 9.7% breakaway rush rate.

Robinson has traits that should translate to the NFL, and he’s in an ideal rush-heavy offense. He should be the top overall pick in most dynasty drafts, should be the most impactful offensive rookie in the league and should cruise to an OROY award.

You can play Robinson to win this award at short odds, I’d recommend 2-1 or better.