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Sports Betting

Bears predictions, odds: handicapping Chicago’s first pick in the NFL Draft

Action Network
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Ohio State offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. plays during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in East Lansing, Mich.

Ohio State offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. plays during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in East Lansing, Mich. (Carlos Osorio/AP)

With the 2023 NFL Draft just a few days away, it’s time to scan the market and offer the best betting option(s) — targeting the Chicago Bears prediction with their No. 9 pick.

We examined the Bears’ decision to trade their No. 1 pick to select ninth in the draft in an earlier piece. We also identified the offensive line as a potential area for the Bears to focus with their pick.

Although those odds were priced at -175, there was little value in targeting another position, such as wide receiver, because it’s unlikely that those players have a high enough draft grade that warrants being selected at that number.

Chicago already has a WR1 in D.J. Moore as he joins the Bears as part of the trade with the Panthers and the No. 1 pick. Moore will headline a decent wide receiver group that already includes Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool.

As a result, I don’t think the Bears are in much of a rush to draft a wide receiver. This preview will build on some of our research that involves Chicago using its first-round pick to fortify its offensive line.

FanDuel odds for the No. 9 overall pick

  • DT — Jalen Carter +300
  • OT — Darnell Wright +300
  • OT — Peter Skoronski+350
  • OT — Paris Johnson Jr. +450
  • RB — Bijan Robinson +1500
  • OT — Broderick Jones +1500
  • LB — Nolan Smith +1600
  • DE — Lukas Van Ness +1800
  • CB — Christian Gonzalez +1800
  • WR — Jaxon Smith-Njigba +2000
  • CB — Devon Witherspoon +2500
  • QB — CJ Stroud +2500

The best bet for the No. 9 overall pick

  • OT — Peter Skoronski+350 / OT — Paris Johnson Jr. +450

Bears’ draft analysis

Assuming the Bears don’t make any more moves with their first-round pick, they’ll be the ninth team on the clock for the 2023 NFL Draft. FanDuel lists 12 players the Bears can select with the selection, and they’ve chosen not to include players such as Bryce Young and Will Anderson, who are likely to be off the board.

Upon seeing this list, I was surprised we are seeing other positions mixed in, such as cornerbacks, linebackers and even a running back. However, the draft is all about where a player might fall in terms of value.

Thus, if one player has a higher value than the other, it’s not inconceivable for teams to draft the best one on the board that’s available instead of what they might actually need.

Whichever player the Bears select will depend on where Jalen Carter (+300) goes in the draft. Although the Georgia defensive lineman was a handful to block all season for the Bulldogs, off-field concerns could see him slip after previously being considered arguably one of the best players available.

Carter is a player many initially pegged to go fifth to the Seahawks. However, there’s a growing feeling that the Seahawks won’t leave the first round without taking a quarterback.

If that’s the case, the Seahawks would prefer to use their lower pick and select a quarterback such as Anthony Richardson if he’s available.

That explains why Carter is tied with Wright for the shortest odds on the board with the No. 9 pick at +300.

Wright is a player who seems to be on the move. However, I can’t make heads or tails regarding his ascent, as I’ve not seen him slotted higher than Skoronski (+350) or Johnson (+450) on mock draft boards.

Skoronski actually grades out higher than any player in the draft. According to Pro Football Focus, the Northwestern junior’s pass-blocking grade of 93.1 was the highest in this draft class.

He bulked up coming into the 2022 season and still maintained his flexibility. However, the one negative he may have is his arms are a bit short at 32.25 inches.

If we turn to Johnson, he enters the draft as a redshirt sophomore, trailing Skoronski in experience by a year. Yet, at 6 feet 6, he’s two inches taller and possesses a longer reach (36.13) of almost four inches.

Johnson did overlap with Bears quarterback Justin Fields during his time at Ohio State, so there is some familiarity between the two players, and 2022 was his first year playing tackle after moving over from a guard position.

Given that he had almost 100 fewer pass-blocking snaps (286) than Skoronski (383), one has to wonder if the lack of experience will work against him in this spot.

However, his physical qualities are undeniable and an area where he has Skoronski beat.

Nonetheless, this analysis all depends on Carter being off the board.

After picking the Bears to select an offensive lineman, I won’t deviate from that thought process. As we often see with the NFL Draft, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

You can easily make a strong case for Skoronski or Johnson in this spot. As a result, I’ll be splitting my action between the two Big Ten linemen.