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Sports Betting

Benfica vs. Inter Milan odds, predictions: why we’re targeting the total

Action Network
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Benfica players celebrate after a goal during Champions League match between Maccabi Haifa and Benfica in Haifa, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022.

Benfica players celebrate after a goal during Champions League match between Maccabi Haifa and Benfica in Haifa, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022. (Ariel Schalit/AP)

Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League tie begins from Portugal, we’re set to share a Benfica vs. Inter Milan prediction and best bet.

The round of 16 couldn’t have proved easier for Benfica, who won 7-1 on aggregate against Club Brugge on the heels of winning their group.

Inter, meanwhile, played a low-event tie against fellow Portuguese side Porto, winning 1-0 on aggregate.

Tuesday’s fixture sees hosts Benfica arrive as a +115 home favorite with Inter at +250 and the draw priced at +230 on the three-way moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -160 to the under.

Benfica vs. Inter Milan Prediction + Best Bet

Total Under 2.5 Goals (-160)

First things first: If you shop somewhere that offers Asian totals, do yourself a favor and take under 2.25 at a lower price.

That said, this shapes up as a very defensive Champions League tie, especially in the first leg.

From Inter’s perspective, the objective of Tuesday’s opening leg is simple: avoid defeat and give yourself a chance to win the tie next week in Milan.

Based on that belief, bettors should expect a poor output from the Inter attack, which generated next to nothing against Porto, a team I power-rate behind Benfica.

In the first leg in Milan, 67 % of their entire expected goals on target (xGOT) total for the first leg came AFTER Inter went up a man. Up until that point, Inter created only 0.33 xGOT against a stout Porto defense.

Then, in the second leg, the Nerazzurri generated only 0.39 xGOT against Porto, albeit from a positive game state.

Now, they have to take a step up in competition and face a Benfica team that counts themselves among the best defenses in Portugal. Through 27 domestic fixtures, Benfica is allowing 0.5 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes.

Plus, in two group matches against PSG — a side that represents the closest comparison to this Inter squad — Benfica’s defense allowed a mere 0.7 npxGOT per 90 minutes across two legs. Add in the first meeting against Juventus and bettors will find Benfica are allowing 0.65 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

But, this is a Benfica offense that has struggled to create strong offensive chances of late.

In their past two domestic fixtures, at Rio Ave and vs. Porto, Benfica generated only 1.7 npxGOT total, including 0.24 against Porto.

Plus, while it’s very concerning Inter surrendered 2.57 npxGOT in the second leg at Porto, their road defense has largely done well this season. In Serie A, a league three steps above Portugal in UEFA coefficients, Inter is allowing only 1.12 npxGOT per 90 minutes away from home.

Based on those factors, take under 2.5 at -175 or better or under 2.25 at -140 or better.