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Sports Betting

Celtics vs. 76ers prediction, odds: how we’re betting Game 5

Action Network
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Boston Celtics' Marcus Smart goes up to shoot against Philadelphia 76ers' James Harden during overtime of Game 4 in an NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Philadelphia.

Boston Celtics' Marcus Smart goes up to shoot against Philadelphia 76ers' James Harden during overtime of Game 4 in an NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Philadelphia. (Matt Slocum/AP)

Ahead of Tuesday’s crucial Game 5 in Boston, we’re set to share our Celtics vs. 76ers prediction and best bet.

Philadelphia fell behind two games to one after the first three games, but delivered an inspired performance in Game 4 to level the series. Led by 42 points from James Harden, the 76ers earned a 116-115 win in overtime.

The series now shifts back to Boston, where the Celtics are 3-2 straight up in the playoffs, including a 34-point win over Philadelphia in the last game at the TD Garden.

The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites with the total listed at 213 points. Those interested in the 76ers can take the points or +245 on the moneyline.

Celtics vs. 76ers Prediction & Best Bet

Celtics -7.5 Points (-110)

Essentially, the series has featured two different game outcomes: Philadelphia wins outright or they get blown away.

We’ve already mentioned the 34-point drubbing they received in Game 2 after stealing the first game in Boston, but they still couldn’t hold court at home. In the subsequent Game 3, Boston earned a 12-point road win before Philadelphia ultimately leveled the series.

Thus, if you think Boston wins Game 5, chances are they cover this admittedly high number, too.

Sharp bettors appear to agree with that assessment as the Celtics are earning the majority of money for Tuesday’s game. According to the Action Network PRO Report, the ticket count is split down to the middle at 50% each, but Boston is receiving 75% of the total handle, as of this writing.

That latter percentage triggers an Action PRO System in Boston’s favor. In the playoffs, teams receiving a higher percentage of dollars than their ticket count own a 60% cover rate for a 17% return on investment.

Beyond those metrics, there’s a lot to dislike about the 76ers.

Put simply, it’s hard to imagine their defense plays well enough to offer their offense enough room to keep up. In this series, the 76ers hold a 123.7 defensive rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.

For reference, the next worst team in that category — the Phoenix Suns — are sitting at a 118.7 defense rating.

Philly also holds a -11.5 net rating, also the worst of the remaining teams, by a 3.1-point gap to the next team.

Plus, if there’s one thing we know about the Celtics, it’s that they’re an improved defensive side at home. During the regular season, Boston allowed three fewer points per game at home.

In the playoffs, the Celtics are allowing 106 points per game at home compared with 117.8 away from home — one overtime game included.

With an improved defensive showing from Boston and consistently poor defense from Philadelphia, take the Celtics to cover in Game 5.