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Sports Betting

Celtics vs. 76ers prediction, odds: Boston’s style creates a bet on the total

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Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) shoots during Game 1 in the NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series, Monday, May 1, 2023, in Boston.

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) shoots during Game 1 in the NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series, Monday, May 1, 2023, in Boston. (Charles Krupa/AP)

We have a Celtics vs. 76ers Game 6 prediction with Boston on the brink of elimination facing a 3-2 deficit.

In Game 5, the Celtics picked a lousy time for a poor shooting night. They shot 39.8% from the floor and 31.6% from beyond the arc. They also allowed the 76ers to shoot 50.6% in the game and 40% from behind the perimeter.

The 76ers put on a clinic on how the inside-out basketball game should be played with the help of MVP Joel Embiid. Embiid led his team with 33 points while posting an impressive plus/minus of plus-21.

Both teams finished with 36 points inside the paint, which helped lead to 61 free-throw attempts. If we get a similar performance in Philadelphia, we could be in store for a higher-scoring game than the experts think.

Celtics vs. 76ers odds

Odds provided by FanDuel

Spread: BOS -2.5 (-110) vs. PHI -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline: BOS (-138) vs. PHI (+118)

Total: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)

Celtics vs. 76ers pick

Over 212.5 points

Celtics vs. 76ers analysis

I’ll give the bookmakers some credit for sticking to their beliefs in how to price the totals for this series. They sent out an opening number of 214.5 for Game 6 — the same opener for Game 1.

Moreover, the closing total in this series has ranged from 213.5 to 215.5. That’s a tight range, yet the total is still 4-1 to the over.

I won’t dispute there’s a ton of data that says two divisional teams facing one another in the postseason should result in a lower-scoring game. However, we’re also dealing with a Boston team that’s unlikely to change its style of play.

During the regular season, the Celtics ranked second with 42.6 3-point attempts. This postseason, they’re also second with 40.8 3-point attempts.

We often hear the phrase that the NBA is a make-or-miss league. While it might seem somewhat counterintuitive or even lazy to describe the league in such a way, it doesn’t mean it’s not befitting.

Players and coaches are lauded when they opt for an aggressive 3-pointer but face criticism when those shots don’t fall.

Boston shot poorly in the previous meeting, but you need to have a short-term memory when approaching the game like this team does.

The Celtics did show some commitment to attack the interior, and I was surprised to see so many free-throw attempts in the game. It’s always a dream scenario for over-bettors when teams score points when the clock is turned off.

We also can’t minimize Embiid’s value as a deterrent inside the paint, given that his presence might provide the Celtics with even better looks on the outside. Again, it’s a make-or-miss league, and as long as the Celtics are getting good shots, they’ll have to live with the outcome, whatever it may be.

Given the offensive talent on the floor, I think it’s more likely that at least one of these teams will have a decent shooting night. As a result, there’s a stronger case here for this game being a higher-scoring affair.