Celtics vs. 76ers predictions, odds: ‘Smart’ bet for 1 of 2 player props

Boston collapsed in Game 4 and Game 5, giving Philadelphia a 3-2 series lead and setting up our Celtics vs. 76ers predictions for Game 6.

Given how the series has gone, I want to back two players in the props market. I see Marcus Smart taking plenty of shots while James Harden continues to dish out assists.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.

76ers vs. Celtics Best Player Prop Bet No. 1

Marcus Smart over 13.5 points (-111) | Play to 13.5 (-120)

I’m not entirely sure why this is the case, but the Celtics continue to give Smart looks.

At the minimum, Smart is aggressive, and the Celtics trust their longest-tenured player in big moments. He has made huge plays, but he’s also missed plenty of clutch shots.

Either way, Smart has cashed over 13.5 points in eight of 11 playoff games and four straight against the 76ers. He’s averaging 12.1 field-goal attempts per game during this 11-game playoff run, shooting 45.9% from the field and 36.2% from 3.

Smart will be aggressive with the ball in late-game situations, he’ll generally make his free throws (83.3% during the postseason) and he’s gotten plenty of open 3-point looks off Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (which he’s made at a pretty high rate).

The Celtics will run their star players into the ground in a do-or-die game. Smart is going to see the minutes and he’ll get the shot attempts, he just needs to continue to make them.

Props Cash projects Smart for 15.7 points in this one, providing us with over two points of value on the over 13.5 (-106) number. That’s worth a wager to me.

76ers vs. Celtics Best Player Prop Bet No. 2

James Harden over 8.5 assists (-132) | Play to 9.5 (-110)

The 76ers ran a pick-and-roll set 33 times in Game 5, which accounted for 41% of their total half-court offensive plays.

Most of those sets involved Harden as the ballhandler and Joel Embiid as the roll man.

And the Harden-Embiid duo wreaked havoc on the Celtics’ defense. Harden dished out 10 assists, while Embiid posted 33 points, making six midrange field goals in open space off the pick-and-roll.

The Celtics iced every ball screen, allowing Harden to drive to his left while Embiid rolled into open space. There wasn’t a single adjustment from the Celtics’ coaching staff, and I don’t expect Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla to wise up after six games.

So, I’m looking for Harden to dish out assists against passive ball-screen coverages again on Thursday. Given he’s getting so many good looks, Harden has cashed over 8.5 assists in three straight games, recording 30 over the stretch.

While we could also target Embiid’s points prop, that would also involve him finishing near the rim and from deep. I don’t trust Embiid to score at all three levels for a second straight game.

However, I do trust Harden finding Embiid consistently in ball-screen sets, and Embiid has shot over 50% from the midrange this season.

Meanwhile, Harden has also proved himself a good passer out of other sets, finding open 3-point looks on drives. He has a high assist floor because of the Embiid-based ball screens, but he’s guaranteed to pick up a few more thanks to Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and others.

With a similar game script in mind, I’ll again target Harden in the assist market at home in Game 6.

Plus, Harden doesn’t need a positive game script to cash this number. He’s eclipsed nine assists in 26 of 37 home games this season, good for a 70% hit rate that implies -236 odds to the over.