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Sports Betting

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds, prediction: look to totals for Tuesday UCL bet

Action Network
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Chelsea's Raheem Sterling, left, fights for the ball with Real Madrid's Eder Militao during the Champions League quarter final first leg soccer match between Real Madrid and Chelsea at Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Wednesday, April 12, 2023.

Chelsea's Raheem Sterling, left, fights for the ball with Real Madrid's Eder Militao during the Champions League quarter final first leg soccer match between Real Madrid and Chelsea at Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Wednesday, April 12, 2023. (Jose Breton/AP)

In advance of Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League second leg, we’re set to provide a Chelsea vs. Real Madrid prediction.

In the first leg, hosts Madrid claimed a 2-0 victory. Now, Chelsea need a win of three goals or more to advance or a two-goal win to send the match to extra time.

That’s a big task for interim manager Frank Lampard, who helms a Chelsea side winless in six. Madrid, meanwhile, has won four of five in all competitions.

Madrid are a +135 favorite on Tuesday with Chelsea priced at +195 and the draw at +240 on the three-way moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -120 to the over.

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Prediction + Best Bet

Chelsea 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (+115 | Bet to +100)

For Tuesday’s hosts, they have no choice but to come out in full-on attack mode as they seek to eat into Madrid’s advantage.

The good news for Chelsea? They should be well-equipped to exploit Madrid’s weak defense.

Despite failing to score in the first leg, Chelsea consistently found spaces behind Madrid’s back line. In the first half alone, Lampard’s side created 1.33 expected goals on target (xGOT), including a Raheem Sterling strike worth 0.97 xGOT on 24 minutes.

That represents continued success for the Chelsea attack against Madrid dating back to their encounter in last season’s Champions League.

Across the three previous meetings between these powers, Chelsea has created 1.6 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes. Plus, last week’s first leg marked the first occasion Chelsea failed to score a first-half goal against Los Blancos.

Consider just the three opening halves against Madrid and bettors will find Chelsea generated a total of 3.1 npxGOT, scoring twice in the process.

Plus, we have precedent to consider in terms of what Chelsea looks like when playing from behind. In last year’s second leg in Madrid, Chelsea created 0.8 xGOT in the first half.

Earlier this campaign, hosts Chelsea found itself behind against Dortmund, which allowed Chelsea to score once in the first half off 1.37 xGOT.

For all of Madrid’s success this season, they’ve willingly let sides create early chances when playing away from home.

In five trips — to Barcelona, Liverpool, RB Leipzig, Villarreal and Atletico Madrid — manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side has conceded 4.57 xGOT in the five combined first halves with three teams generating at least one xGOT in the opening frame.

Factor in, too, that Chelsea’s key attackers were rested over the weekend against Brighton & Hove Albion and bettors can expect a positive start for the hosts.

Back this market so long as it remains available at +100 or better.