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The wait is finally over, and we can now focus on making a Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction. There are plenty of similarities between the two teams, given that this will be the first Super Bowl where two brothers will go head-to-head.
The Kelces were selected as All-Pros, making it six players on both teams to receive the distinction.
But there are still many more comparisons, as both teams scored 546 points this year. Both starting quarterbacks are Texas natives, and the head coaches have spent time in the opposing team’s organization.
The teams also entered the playoffs as No. 1 seeds after going 14-3 during the regular season.
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It’s almost as if these two teams were on this cosmic collision course to meet in this Super Bowl. And given their high-powered offenses, many expect this will be a high-scoring game.
Bookmakers opened this total at 49.5; we’ve seen that number climb to 51.
However, the Super Bowl is unlike any game these players will ever play, and in this preview, I’ll share why it sometimes pays to expect the unexpected.
Chiefs vs. Eagles odds
Odds provided by Caesars
Spread: KC +1.5 (-110) vs. PHI -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: KC (+105) vs. PHI (-125)
Total: Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Eagles pick
Under 51 points or better
Chiefs vs. Eagles analysis
There’s no event in sports quite like the Super Bowl. Even the World Cup can’t offer a two-week lead-up to its final game.
And given the massive coaching staffs that NFL organizations employ, you can be sure these teams have been hard at work, dissecting everything about their opponent.
But before the game even starts, you must get through the lengthy player introductions and the national anthem punctuated with an emotional flyover.
The commercial breaks are longer, and the halftime show can lead to an additional 15 minutes of players standing around before they can get back on the field. All these extraneous parts of the game can make it more challenging for teams to get into a normal rhythm.
With the level of work these coaching staff put in ahead of the big game, I think it’s rare that two teams show up unprepared.
Of course, if there’s a talent mismatch, things could get very lopsided.
The narrative coming into this game is that the Eagles will run all over the Chiefs. And while they might have success moving the ball up and down the field, they still have to get in the end zone to make it count.
According to lineups.com, the Chiefs had the fewest rushing yards (145) allowed inside the red zone this season. Moreover, Kansas City was tied for fourth in yards allowed per carry inside the red zone (2.5).
Offensively, the Chiefs could also give the Eagles a dose of their medicine with their running game.
Teams have had success running on this Eagles defense as Football Outsiders ranks them 21st in their rush DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric.
It’s worth noting that the Chiefs activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire from the injured reserve to beef up their rushing attack.
Again, with two weeks to prepare, it’s entirely possible this game doesn’t play out as you might initially expect.
According to our Action Labs database, the total is 7-1 to the under in Super Bowls, with an opening total of 49.5 or more points.
This angle is also on a 4-0 run.
I plan to enjoy this game either way, so I don’t mind being on an island alone in picking the total to stay under.
I just think the unusual circumstances of the game have a habit of bringing about the unexpected.