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NFL Betting

Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LVII prediction: target this head-to-head QB matchup prop

Action Network
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El quarterback de los Chiefs de Kansas City Patrick Mahomes busca a quién lanzar el balón en el duelo de campeonato de la Conferencia Americana ante los Bengals de Cincinnati el domingo 29 de enero del 2023.

El quarterback de los Chiefs de Kansas City Patrick Mahomes busca a quién lanzar el balón en el duelo de campeonato de la Conferencia Americana ante los Bengals de Cincinnati el domingo 29 de enero del 2023. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

After exploring multiple options for Chiefs vs. Eagles player props, we can finally turn our attention to the quarterback position.

Although there are a variety of props we can choose from, one has to understand that quarterback props are highly correlated to which team will win the game on Sunday.

For example, a quarterback’s performance will broadly align with the flow of the game script. If one team falls behind early, the quarterback that trails will likely need to throw more.

Whereas if a quarterback has a big lead, his team will probably try to manage the game by running the ball more.

And if you’re someone who already has wall-to-wall action for the big game, you might want to find a prop that’ll have minimal correlation with the plays you’ve already made.

In this preview, I’ll share which quarterback prop applies in this spot and tell you how you can profit from it.

Patrick Mahomes to have a higher completion % (-139 at BetRivers)

When you think about correlated stats and their connection to winning or losing a football game, you can’t get more innocuous than a quarterback’s completion percentage.

I’ve been on a mission to find a prop that won’t be as tied to the outcome, and the quarterback completion rate meets the criteria.

I don’t mind swallowing the juice here with Mahomes because the numbers clearly show he’s the better passing quarterback.

He finished the regular season with a higher completion rate (67.1%) than Jalen Hurts (66.5%) while attempting 188 more passes.

Mahomes carried that success into the playoffs, completing 69.9% of his passes.

As for Hurts, his completion rate went down to 63.3% in the postseason.

Both quarterbacks are banged up coming into the game, as Mahomes could still be dealing with a high ankle sprain.

If we turn to Hurts, he might still be feeling the effects of a sprained sternoclavicular (SC) joint in his throwing shoulder.

And when you compare the severity of those injuries, I’ll gladly side with the quarterback who’s not dealing with a shoulder problem.

If we look at rbsdm.com’s completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) metric over the entire year, which includes the playoffs, Mahomes completed 3.8% more of his passes compared to 2.3% for Hurts.

We could also see Mahomes try to get the ball out quicker to evade the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. That could mean shorter, higher percentage throws to running backs and tight ends.

As for the Eagles, their running game is good enough to move the ball down the field. And if the Chiefs’ defense opts to load the box to stop the run, Hurts might have to make some throws outside the numbers.

We’ve seen Hurts miss some of those throws this postseason, and if the shoulder continues to be a problem, I like our chances with Mahomes finishing with the higher completion rate.