College Football Predictions: Big Ten Win Totals

With one month until the season’s first game, College Football Predictions are in full swing, and the Big Ten Win Totals picture is becoming clearer with each passing day.

I’ve got some thoughts on each Big Ten team’s Win Total, and it’s a fine Saturday to share those thoughts with my readers.

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College Football Predictions: Michigan Wolverines Win Total

The Wolverines have the most experienced, well-rounded roster in the Big Ten. They return only 15 starters, but they have the fifth-most returning production in the nation, as they specifically bring back:

• The best running back corps in the nation (Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards)
• Phil Steele’s second-best offensive line in the nation (145 career starts with two returning studs and three Pac-12 transfers)
• Breakout quarterback star JJ McCarthy
• Six of the top seven tacklers

The Wolverines will be great, and they should probably be favorites to win the conference.

There’s only one major pothole in their schedule: Week 11 against Penn State in Happy Valley.

Of course, beating Ohio State three times in a row will be tough, but I have questions about Ohio State.

And I wouldn’t be worried about Jim Harbaugh’s potential four-game suspension at the beginning of the year. Their non-con schedule consists of East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green, and their first Big Ten game is Rutgers (projected spread is Michigan -35).

Our Action Network Analytics team makes Michigan’s Win Total 10.97, so there’s clear value on Over 10.5 wins (-115) available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The play: Over 10.5 wins (-115) at BetMGM

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College Football Predictions: Ohio State Win Total

The Buckeyes have a new offensive coordinator and quarterback. They lost three offensive line starters to the draft (center, both tackles). They rank 97th in SP+ returning production overall.

They also draw Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin on the road.

The defense should be better, but I think the growing pains on offense will combine with the tough schedule and result in Ohio State’s second two-loss season under Ryan Day.

The Action Analytics team makes this Win Total exactly 10, so there’s value on the under 10.5 available for plus-money (!!) at FanDuel.

The play: Under 10.5 wins (+104) at FanDuel

College Football Predictions: Penn State Win Total

I’m buying up every available Penn State stock this season.

The Nittany Lions went 11-2 last year and 9-3-1 against the spread (ATS). They return 16 starters and should have the best front seven and secondary in the conference (PSU’s pass defense numbers were insane last year and should be again).

I love that James Franklin is taking a shot with Drew Allar, the highest-rated quarterback recruit in program history. The kid has the arm talent and an unlimited ceiling.

Plus, Franklin surrounded him with the best left tackle in the nation (Olu Fashanu) and plenty of skill position weapons.

Penn State is going to break out this season. I have a feeling they might beat Michigan at home in Week 11.

The play: Over 9.5 wins (-140) at BetMGM

College Football Predictions: Wisconsin Badgers Win Total

The Badgers signed stud head coach Luke Fickell in the offseason.

Fickell brought in stud quarterback Tanner Mordecai from SMU.

There are 18 returning starters from last year’s squad, including All-World running back Braelon Allen, their top two tacklers and six of their top seven stud linebackers.

They avoid Michigan and get Ohio State and Iowa at home.

Action Analytics has them winning over nine games, while Phil Steele projects they could go 11-1 this year – they are projected as a favorite in all but one game (again, Ohio State).

Wisconsin should win the Big Ten West and cruise past 8.5 wins.

The play: Over 8.5 wins (-130) at DraftKings

College Football Predictions: Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa’s offense should be better (“should” is a big keyword). They return nine starters, including their entire offensive line (only lost one backup), added Cade McNamara at quarterback and Michigan tight end Luke All as a pass catcher.

Also, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has to hit 25 points per game this year, or his contract expires. Talk about motivation.

I do expect the defense to take a step back. They return seven starters but lost their top two tacklers, including first-round pick Jack Campbell at linebacker, and rank 102nd in SP+ returning defensive production.

Then again, Iowa was so pitiful on offense and so elite on defense, what does any of this matter? We can probably expect the same old Hawkeyes in the Fall.

Ultimately, the schedule will likely be Iowa’s downfall. They drew Penn State and Wisconsin on the road and play at Iowa State in the non-con.

Action Analytics is pegging them for 6.89 wins, so I’ll take the under 8.5 still available at BetMGM.

The play: Under 8.5 wins (-120) at BetMGM

College Football Predictions: Minnesota Golden Gophers Win Total

Do you believe in Athan Kaliakmanis?

You better if you want to back the Golden Gophers. They have an uber-deep pass-catching corps and the “Greek Gunslinger” has a huge arm, but the vibe is changing in Minneapolis.

The Gophers lose uber-productive running back Mohamed Ibrahim and return only two offensive linemen and 49 career line starts.

Kaliakmanis must make quick, accurate decisions and get the ball to his playmakers.

He needs to make this throw consistently:

But the defense likely takes a step back (six returning starters, lose three of the top six tacklers), and their schedule is horrendous. They draw Michigan and Ohio State from the East, get Iowa on the road and have a non-con road game with North Carolina.

It’s a top-10 schedule by Action Analytics, and the team makes their win total only 6.85. The Under 7.5 (-150) at FanDuel looks good.

The play: Under 7.5 Wins (-150) at FanDuel

College Football Predictions: Maryland Terrapins Win Total

The Terps are uber-inexperienced on both lines, and I never like to back a team that can’t play in the trenches.

But everything else breaks well for Maryland.

Taulia Tagovailoa is back after breaking all kinds of program records last year. Primary running back Roman Hemby is also back alongside Taulia’s top two targets from last year.

New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis is a former Broyles winner at Michigan (2021). That’s a great hire.

The Terps should be solid in the second and third levels of the defense, and that’s what matters in Maryland’s deep-back heavy scheme.

And maybe the Terps will catch a break this season? They lost by seven at Michigan and two against Purdue last year, and they played Ohio State tough as 27-point dogs (led by 3 at half).

They should cruise through a relatively easy schedule. They’re projected as favorites in 10 games and have a non-con schedule featuring Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. The Terps are 9-2 ATS in non-con games under Mike Locksley, so I expect them to start 3-0 on their way to Bowl eligibility for the third-straight season.

Action Analytics makes this Win Total 8.58, giving us an edge on the Over 7 (-105) provided at DraftKings.

The play: Over 7 Wins (-105) at DraftKings

College Football Predictions: Nebraska Cornhuskers Win Total

The Cornhuskers are 4-16 in their last 20 one-score games.

That was Scott Frost. He’s gone. Matt Rhule was the best possible hire for this team, and he’s ready to turn the program around just as he did at Baylor.

Nebraska should finally see some positive regression, specifically close-game luck, go their way.

Will it be enough to get to Bowl eligibility? Or seven wins?

Impossible to tell.

The Huskers are middling in terms of returning production, and Rhule brought in a new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and new quarterback (Georgia Tech’s Jeff Sims). There will be a huge scheme change on both sides of the ball (expect more power runs on offense and more 3-3-5 on defense).

They’re projected to be favored in five games this year, and the Win total probably comes down to coin-flip games with Purdue (projected spread Nebraska +1.4) and Iowa (projected spread Iowa -0.1).

Action Analytics makes this Win Total 6.02, so there’s no value in this Win Total (Over 6 or 6.5 across the market).

The play: Pass

College Football Predictions: Illinois Illini Win Total

Illinois is a sleeper in the Big Ten West.

They have 10 All-Big Ten returning players, the most in the division.

They’ll be good in the trenches. Bret Bielema can coach up a line with three returning starters and two NFL draft prospects, and they return most of their front seven.

The Illini avoid Michigan and Ohio State from the East and nab Penn State at home.

Unfortunately, the Illini also lose their top two tacklers and four starters in the secondary, and they’ve got a new defensive coordinator, Aaron Henry.

Ultimately, the Win Total will come down to new quarterback Luke Altmyer (transfer from Ole Miss) and a revamped running back room. This group has a high upside and plenty of support (solid offensive line, return of the top two receivers), but they’re inexperienced.

The Illini have five games this year with a projected spread under a field goal, so they’ll need consistency on offense to cut through that variance.

The Illini went 8-5 last year but were 1-4 in one-score games, so I think they’re due for some close-game positive regression.

Action Analytics makes this Win Total 7.3, so I’d take a shot at the over despite the expected variance.

The play: Over 6.5 wins (-110) at FanDuel

College Football Predictions: Michigan State Spartans Win Total

Mel Tucker’s 2021 looks like an anomaly with each passing season.

The Spartans went 5-7 last year (5-7 ATS) and were net -109 yards per game in Big Ten games.

They lose a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball. There’s a quarterback battle between two back-ups, and the wide receiver room is thin as a razor.

They’re projected as a favorite in just three games, and they could drop their season opener to Central Michigan (the projected spread is under a touchdown). They only have three true Big Ten home games, with one coming against Michigan.

The Spartans are going to be bad, folks. Action Analytics projects 3.44 wins, and we can snag Under 5.5 wins (-155) at DraftKings.

The play: Under 5.5 wins (-155) at DraftKings

College Football Predictions: Purdue Boilermakers Win Total

Purdue has a whole new coaching staff. They have to replace 10 starters and 42 lettermen. They draw Ohio State and Michigan from the East, and Michigan will be off a Bye.

With a profile like that, you’d expect a Win Total Under to be an auto-play.

But I’m not so sure.

Action Analytics makes their Win Total 6.08, which would put some value on Over 5 or Over 5.5.

The defense should be much improved, as they hit the portal hard, and the staff is more defensive-minded.

But, ultimately, I can’t trust a team implementing major scheme changes on both sides of the ball (air-raid on offense behind Texas quarterback transfer Hudson Card, 3-4 defense with five guys on the line).

I will say this: I will bet a ton of Unders in Purdue games this year. The public will see Purdue and think about their high-flying offense with Aidan O’Connell, but these Boilermakers will be a defense-first squad, and the rule changes will put a premium on points.

The play: Pass

College Football Predictions: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This offensive line could be monstrous. Three starters are back, and the line has a combined 101 career line starts.

Greg Schiano is a good offensive line coach, and he added former Giants offensive line coach Pat Flaherty, who won two Super Bowls in New York.

They return all their running backs, too, so they’ll probably be able to run the ball.

Meanwhile, eight starters return for a great pass defense, albeit an average run defense. The Scarlet Knights have key returning pieces at all three levels.

Alas, the wide receiver room has no talent and little depth. Gavin Wimsatt is an unproven quarterback.

You probably won’t win many games at the FBS level if you can’t throw the football.

They’re -133 net yards per game in their past 18 conference matchups.

Rutgers draws Iowa and Wisconsin out of the West and is projected as a favorite in one game.

Action Analytics makes the Win Total 3.5, so there is value on the Under 4.5 (-115) available at BetMGM.

But the defense gives Rutgers a high floor, and they have the horses to pull an upset or two.

This is a tough team to handicap, so I’ll pass.

The play: Pass

College Football Predictions: Northwestern Wildcats Win Total

While I was somewhat bullish on Northwestern (due for positive regression), it’s impossible to handicap them after the Pat Fitzgerald scandal.

The play: Pass

College Football Predictions: Indiana Hoosiers Win Total

The Action Network’s Collin Wilson puts together his TARP ratings every offseason, which stands for Transfer Assets and Returning Production. It’s a great stat because it combines returning production with your performance in the portal.

Indiana is second-to-last among all FBS schools in TARP, with a -11.5 rating.

They lost 14 starters and 30 seniors, bringing in 25 lackluster transfers.

They’re 123rd in total experience.

Yeah, not great. Especially after they one just one Big Ten game last season (Michigan State in double-overtime).

Action Analytics makes this Win Total 3.21. Grab the Under 4 (-160) available at Caesars.

The Play: Under 4 (-160) at Caesars