Cubs odds: Deadline moves puts Chicago in position to win NL Central

Cubs odds are shifting. The team’s recent hot streak has flipped this squad from sellers into buyers.

The Cubs won 10 of 11 games between July 18 and July 29. Following Tuesday’s ridiculous 20-9 victory over Cincinnati, the Cubbies now sit only four games back in the NL Central race.

I’m in love with these Cubs. I think they’re the best team in the division. I think they’re going to win the division.

Let me tell you why you should bet on them to win the division right now.

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Cubs odds: Chicago’s bats

No team posted a higher OPS than the Cubs in July (.837). Only the Dodgers had a higher wRC+ (128 to 127).

Narrow the timeframe to the last two weeks, and the Cubbies’ bats are even hotter. The Cubs have a 144 wRC+ during those 519 team plate appearances, producing runs at a 21% higher rate than any other MLB team (Braves are in second place with 123).

Dansby Swanson has been the best off-season shortstop signing of any team. Cody Bellinger is on track to post the best strikeout rate of his career and has the seventh-highest OPS of any player over the past month (1.149). Patrick Wisdom is slugging over .500.

The lineup should get better.

I project positive regression for Seiya Suzuki, whose 92 OPS+ doesn’t align with his solid batted-ball profile.

The Cubs have found consistent production from Mike Tachuman (.272 expected batting average) and consistent power from second-year DH Christopher Morel (16 homers). Those two will play full-time down the stretch.

Finally, the deadline acquisition of Jeimer Candelario is massive. There arguably wasn’t a better bat on the market, and the Cubs will insert him and his 124 wRC+ into the six spot.

That is a crazy-deep, red-hot lineup, and their recent success could be sustainable. This might be a top-five lineup.

At the minimum, it’s the best lineup in the division.

Cubs odds: Chicago’s arms

The rotation is a tad thinner, but the Cubs structured this rotation with intent.

You see, the Cubs boast the best infield defense in the league.

There are some question marks about how the infield will be structured. Manager David Ross said he will likely play Candelario mostly at first and keep Madrigal at third, while Bellinger stays in center field but fills in when needed.

Either way, this infield can make every single play. They’re a defensive wagon.

And what do the Cubs have?

A rotation headlined by ground-ball pitchers.

That is a smart, sustainable strategy playing to the team’s strengths. Pitch to contact and gobble everything up.

Another thing about the Candelario trade is that he bolsters the lineup and the infield defense. It’s the perfect addition for how this team is structured.

I also wouldn’t be worried about the bullpen. They’ve been up and down all season but boast a 2.91 ERA and .188 batting average against over the past two weeks. I mostly trust Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr.

The deadline addition of Jose Cuas will fly under the radar, but middle-relief depth is always needed. The Cubs needed that badly, so they went out and got it.

Cubs odds: Divisional competition

The Brewers and Reds stand in Chicago’s way of divisional glory.

What do those teams have to offer?

The Brewers offer high-end pitching but the fifth-worst offense in baseball (by wRC+ and OPS). I doubt a one-sided team ends up running away with the Central.

The Reds offer a surplus of young, inexplicably exciting players, filling the baseball world’s subconscious with highlights.

Yet, in July, the Reds were a bottom-10 offense (by wRC+) and a bottom-five pitching staff (by expected FIP).

Some of Cincinnati’s young guns aren’t performing as well as you may expect.

For example, Elly De La Cruz has a .686 OPS since July 1. Jonathan India has a below-average OPS and just hit the injured list.

Meanwhile, the Reds have four pitchers in the rotation with an ERA north of 4.50.

The one bright spot has been Andrew Abbott, a lefty with a high-spin curveball and a 2.35 ERA. But his peripherals call for major regression (a 95% strand rate is wildly unsustainable).

And outside of Alexis Diaz, the Cincinnati bullpen is far from elite.

The competition in the NL Central is much weaker than you think.

Cubs predictions: The NL Central Division pick

The Cubs are the most well-rounded team in the NL Central and significantly boosted their outlook at the deadline.

The other two contenders are not as strong as you think, and they only have a four-game lead on their red-hot rival with two months of games left to play.

Baseball Prospectus currently projects the Cubs with a 20.3% chance to win the Division, while FanGraphs projects a 17.7% shot.

Yet, BetMGM is offering +500 odds on the Cubbies to earn the Divisional crown, implying a 16% probability and creating value in the current market price.

But after looking at the full picture, I’m betting those odds are much better.

The play: NL Central Winner – Cubs (+500)