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Sports Betting

Cubs odds, picks, predictions: Best bet for Cubs vs Reds (July 31)

Action Network
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Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman walks through the dugout after being pulled during the fourth inning of the team's baseball game against the Chicago White Sox, Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Chicago.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman walks through the dugout after being pulled during the fourth inning of the team's baseball game against the Chicago White Sox, Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Chicago. (Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)

The Chicago Cubs take on the Cincinnati Reds today, and we have Cubs odds, picks and predictions featuring our best bet for this July 31 game.

These two teams have caught lightning in a bottle, with the Reds pushing toward the top of the NL Central behind a young core and the Cubs making up ground in July with a red-hot offense.

Yet, I’m projecting a low-scoring pitcher’s duel on Monday night at Wrigley.

So, read on for our best bet for Cubs vs. Reds today.

Reds vs. Cubs odds

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Reds (+104) vs. Cubs (-122)

Spread: Reds +1.5 (-205) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+168)

Total: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-118)

Reds vs. Cubs picks, predictions

  • (7:05 p.m. CT, MARQ)
  • Probable pitchers: Andrew Abbott (LHP) vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP)

This is a killer starting pitching matchup.

Marcus Stroman is off a tough start against the White Sox, but I think that was an anomaly. Stro’s ability to avoid barrels and induce ground balls in front of Dansby Swanson (100th percentile Outs Above Average) and Nico Hoerner (95th percentile Outs Above Average) is a sustainable way to overperform.

Stroman’s sinker-heavy approach has forced a whopping 58.1% ground-ball rate this year, second among all MLB starting pitchers (Logan Webb).

The Reds will start lefty Andrew Abbott, who is off to a superb start to his MLB career. He’s due for regression (his 95% strand rate should reduce as the season progresses), but he has four solid pitches, including one of the spinniest curveballs in MLB.

The Cubs have been crushing the ball in July, but all their success has come against right-handed pitching. The Cubs have a below-average OPS (.727) and wRC+ (96) against southpaws over the past month.

Meanwhile, the Reds have a below-average OPS (.746) and wRC+ (94) against righties over the past month.

So, as mentioned, I think we’re in for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel, and I’m willing to bet on that analysis with a play on the Under 8.5 (-118) at FanDuel.

Adding to a potential low-scoring game script is pitcher’s weather, with the wind blowing in from right field at Windy Wrigley Field. Betting on the Under at Wrigley Field when the wind blows anywhere but straight out is profitable, as heavy breezes hold up more deep fly balls.

Given the weather and the on-the-field matchup, The Action Network’s PRO model projects this total at only 7.53. The models align with my analysis, meaning this will be one of my biggest wagers on Monday’s MLB slate.

Reds vs. Cubs picks, predictions: best bet for July 21

Under 8.5 (-118)