Cubs vs. White Sox odds, predictions picks: Best bet for July 25 matchup

The Chicago Cubs take on the Chicago White Sox today, and we have Cubs vs. White Sox odds, predictions and picks featuring our best bet for this July 25 game.

When the Cubs and White Sox get together, we have an obligation here at the Chicago Tribune to provide our betting analysis. Only all of Chicago will be watching, so it’s important to reach the city’s wide-reaching gambling community.

The Southsiders have dominated this cross-town rivalry recently, winning eight of the past 10 meetings. The Cubs should flip the script this year – they’re the much-better team.

But I’m not targeting the side for today’s matchup. Instead, I’m betting on fireworks.

Read on for today’s Cubs vs. White Sox prediction.

Cubs vs. White Sox odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Chicago Cubs odds, predictions

The Cubbies are inconsistent. They have talent in the lineup but struggle to string together runs on a week-to-week basis.

Luckily for this series, the Cubs are smokin’ hot. They’ve won five of their past six games (Cardinals, Nationals) and have the baseball’s top offense over the past two weeks (133 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .857 OPS).

The Cubs are smashing the ball.

It’s been starting and stopping with one man.

Cody Bellinger is back. He’s slashing .443/.469/.739 for a ridiculous 1.207 OPS over his past 23 games, slapping seven homers and five doubles during the stretch.

Cubs fans... enjoy this while it lasts. Bellinger is likely moved at the deadline.

But look on the bright side: you’re selling Belli at the peak of his value. He’s been overperforming for weeks now and is due for some regression.

The Cubs could get a haul for Bellinger. He’s cooking at the right time. It’s the perfect “thank you” to Cubs fans.

There’s still loads more talent up and down the lineup. Dansby Swanson is having a monster year (leading the team in expected wOBA). Patrick Wisdom and Chris Morel are breaking out. I expect positive regression for Seiya Suzuki (I love his batted-ball profile).

The best thing about these Cubs is that they lead the league in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.07). They grind down opposing starting pitchers.

Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (RHP)

“The Professor” has been rock solid. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA through 11 starts since returning from injury, and the Cubs have won seven of those games.

Hendricks relies on his changeup – only five pitchers in baseball have a higher changeup usage rate than his 36.5%. He keeps it mainly in the zone and excels at inducing soft contact with it, so he has an uber-low walk rate (3.8%) and an excellent batted-ball profile.

But, overall, I’m skeptical of any pitcher with a super low strikeout rate, and Hendricks’ 16.1% mark fits that bill.

His 3.86 expected ERA and 4.63 expected FIP indicate heavy negative regression is coming.

Hendricks has allowed 10 earned over his past three starts (16 ⅓ IP, 5.51 ERA), so he’s not in great form.

Chicago White Sox odds, predictions

The AL Central is so bad. It’s one of the worst divisions in recent memory. The combined run differential of the five divisional teams is -186.

Because of the division’s pure ineptitude, the White Sox were alive in the race. Unfortunately, they’re 5-12 in July and are now 12 games back of Minnesota.

This timely losing streak means the White Sox should (will) be selling at the deadline.

This roster has talent that could (and should) be moved to a contender.

For example, starting pitcher Lance Lynn is a free agent next season.

Lynn is turning his season around. He has an absurd 20.1% Swinging-Strike rate over his past seven starts, the second-highest mark among starting pitchers during that time (since July 13).

Lynn works with three different fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter), and he’s dominant when those pitches are missing bats in the zone. His Zone Contact rate has been under 80% since mid-June, the second-lowest mark among starting pitchers during the stretch.

Lynn would be a welcome addition for any contender.

The White Sox should probably also trade Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease, their other two solid starting pitchers. Giolito will be a free agent next year, while Cease is under team control until 2025.

The White Sox should also move relievers Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López and Kenyan Middleton. Middle relief is always welcome in MLB.

Finally, Tim Anderson needs a new home. Despite his horrific results this year (.564 OPS, 56 wRC+), he still has an elite MLB upside.

For now, the White Sox are one of the league’s worst lineups, bullpens and defenses. #BlowItUp and #FireRickHahn.

White Sox starting pitcher: Michael Kopech (RHP)

It’s all about fastball velocity for Kopech. He throws the pitch over 60% of the time, so he’s overly dependent on a live four-seam.

Well, the velocity was down, and then it went back up. And now it’s back down again.

He’s locating the pitch well, as he managed to get 14 called strikes and five whiffs on the pitch in his last outing (on 60 thrown, good for a 31.7% CSW rate).

But I have little confidence in Kopech’s ability. He has a mid-5.00s expected ERA on the season and has a 6.28 ERA across his past four outings.

Cubs vs. White Sox predictions, picks: Best bet for July 25

As you’ve likely inferred, I want to fade both starting pitchers. Neither pitcher has a bettable profile, and both are in bad form.

So, I’m looking Over.

The White Sox are a lifeless offense, but I’m hoping they can scratch across runs against Hendricks and a poor Cubbies bullpen – Cubs relievers have a 5.45 ERA, an 11.9% walk rate and a league-worst 90.2% Zone Contact rate over the past two weeks.

We don’t have to worry about the Cubs producing runs; they’re the hottest offense in baseball. Bellinger hasn’t been traded yet!

Even better, the Cubs are in their superior offensive split. They boast an absurd 160 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, meaning they’re producing runs against the side at a 60% higher rate than average.

Translation: Kopech is toast.

Five straight meetings between these two clubs have flown Over. I’m willing to bet that it will happen one more time.

Cubs vs. White Sox best bet: Over 9 (-108)