Cubs vs. White Sox odds, predictions picks: Best bet for July 26 matchup

The Chicago Cubs take on the Chicago White Sox today, and we have Cubs vs. White Sox odds, predictions and picks featuring our best bet for this July 26 game.

The Cubs are rolling, dismantling opposing starting pitchers over the past few weeks. It was the same story last night: the Cubs put up a seven spot in a four-run win.

However, I’m betting the Cubs’ offense finally slows down on Wednesday night.

Read on for today’s Cubs vs. White Sox prediction.

Cubs vs. White Sox odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here

Chicago Cubs odds, predictions

The Cubs have been smashing right-handed pitching, posting the best wRC+ in baseball against the side over the past two weeks (160).

It was the same story last night. The Cubs tagged White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech for five runs early.

Last season’s free-agent shortstop class was packed with talent. But, among that group, Dansby Swanson has been the best signing.

Swanson leads the team in expected wOBA (.364) and is on pace to post career highs in expected slugging (.488), Barrel rate (12.6%) and walk rate (10.6%). He also pairs it with elite defense, ranking among the top-five shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

And, what would you know, Swanson smashed two homers last night. He’s unbelievable.

Nico Hoerner is playing great defense at second base while hitting over .270.

So, if you’re doing the math, the Cubs have one of baseball’s most lethal up-the-middle duos.

Hoerner went long last night, too.

These Cubs hit the ball hard and play elite defense. They’re easy to root for and fun to watch.

If only the bullpen were a tad better.

Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (RHP)

Stroman is a fun pitcher to analyze.

He’s overperforming (3.09 ERA, 3.86 expected ERA), but sinkerballers with high ground-ball rates tend to overperform, and Stroman is among the best in that regard.

Stroman has the second-highest ground-ball rate of any qualified starting pitcher (57.8%, trailing only San Francisco sinkerballer Logan Webb). Most of his ground balls go to the superstar up-the-middle infield duo of Swanson and Hoerner, who can eat up ground balls no matter how hard the ball is hit.

That’s a sustainable strategy. It’s hard to score runs when you can’t knock the ball over the heads of a great infield defense.

Stroman’s secondaries go under the radar. He’s got a 33.8% Whiff rate on the slurve and a 25.6% Whiff rate on the cutter. Opposing hitters have a .620 OPS on the combination.

Chicago White Sox odds, predictions

The White Sox are much harder to root for and watch.

Yesterday’s loss means the Southsiders are now 5-13 in July. They’re allowing 5.6 runs per game during that time with one of the league’s worst bullpens and defenses.

Again, I implore the White Sox to trade everything of value and fire their general manager. It’s the only way forward.

#BlowItUp. #FireRickHahn.

Anyway, what can we expect from the White Sox on Wednesday?

My guess: You won’t see much from the White Sox on Wednesday.

The biggest problem for the White Sox over the past few seasons has been an inability to hit the ball in the air. This season is no different, as the Cubs pair the league’s highest ground-ball rate (47.1%) with the second-lowest average Launch Angle (10.7 degrees).

Translation: The White Sox are screwed against a sinkerball-heavy, ground-ball pitcher like Stroman.

The White Sox have a 61.6% ground-ball rate against sinkers this season, nearly 4% higher than any other team. They have a .308 expected wOBA, three points lower than any other team.

Stroman will throw sinker after sinker, and he should produce ground ball after ground ball.

Hopefully, the White Sox can muster some runs against the Cubs bullpen. During the past two weeks, Cubs’ relievers have had a 5.08 ERA and a 12% walk rate.

White Sox starting pitcher: Lance Lynn (RHP)

Lynn has turned into a strikeout machine.

Among qualified starting pitchers, Lynn pairs the second-highest Swinging-Strike rate (20.1%) with the second-lowest Zone Contact rate (79%) since June 1. He trails only Spencer Strider in both categories.

Lynn works with a three-fastball mix, throwing a four-seam, cutter or sinker about 80% of the time. The key to his game is missing bats in the zone with those fastballs, and he’s been doing exactly that.

Also, Lynn re-introduced a curveball over the past seven starts. The pitch has a 50% Whiff rate across three starts this month, but it’s a small sample size.

Lynn has a whopping 32.6% strikeout rate over his past seven starts.

But he also has a 5.27 ERA during the stretch.

What? How is that possible?

Lynn is forcing more Whiffs with his fastball combination, which is always good. But when he’s not missing bats, opposing hitters are obliterating the ball.

This current version of Lynn reminds me of Hunter Greene. These pitchers throw hard and miss bats, so the stuff looks great. But if you miss your spot or catch too much of the plate, it’s sayonara.

Hitters don’t have to do too much with Lynn’s fastball combination. The ball will travel if you make contact with a smooth swing.

Lynn has allowed 12 home runs across his past 42 2/3 innings pitched. Twelve!

Cubs vs. White Sox predictions, picks: Best bet for July 26

As mentioned, Stroman has an excellent matchup today. The White Sox will hit 20 ground balls against his sinker and will likely be held scoreless.

However, I’m willing to bet on Lynn tonight.

I think Lynn is due for some positive regression. He’s getting barreled up at a crazy right but also giving up an unsustainable amount of home runs.

Lynn has a career 11% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, but that’s up at 21.5% this season. That number is bound to come down, especially if he continues striking out so many batters.

Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense will eventually return to earth. They’ve been smashing the baseball, but also overperforming their expected wOBA (for weeks!!), so negative regression is coming.

For example, look at Cody Bellinger lately. No way this is sustainable.

So, I think we’re in for a sneaky pitcher’s duel. Stroman should dominate the White Sox, and Lynn is due for a shutdown performance.

I don’t want to get involved with these two bullpens, but we can wager directly on these two starting pitchers outdueling the opposing lineup.

Take the First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook. No need to worry about late-inning run production against these sub-par bullpen arms!

Cubs vs. White Sox best bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-110)