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Sports Betting

NFL Draft predictions, odds: the five best NFL draft prop bets

Action Network
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TCU football wide receiver Quentin Johnston catches a pass during NFL Pro Day, Thursday, March 30, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas.

TCU football wide receiver Quentin Johnston catches a pass during NFL Pro Day, Thursday, March 30, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. (Brandon Wade/AP)

It’s draft day, and I’ve got three angles for NFL Draft predictions, resulting in our five best NFL Draft prop bets.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Best NFL Draft Prop Bet No. 1

Draft Position — Dalton Kincaid under 24.5 (-250)

Draft Position — Michael Mayer over 21.5 (-148)

First Drafted Tight End — Dalton Kincaid (+150)

Throughout the NFL draft process, Dalton Kincaid’s stock has only gone up, while Michael Mayer’s stock has only gone down.

Mayer is the prospect with more pedigree, a five-star recruit out of high school who immediately became a Freshman All-American at Notre Dame.

However, Kincaid has shown he’s the better athlete who is quicker off the line. And while he’s an FCS transfer (and only played one year of football in high school), his 2022 production was just good as Mayer’s.

In fact, I’d argue Kincaid was the better collegiate tight end last season. He finished with more yards (890), more yards per reception (12.7) and a higher catch rate (by nearly 10%). Kincaid also finished with a slightly higher PFF reception rate.

Mayer is the better blocker with a more traditional frame but lacks true breakaway speed. Meanwhile, I think Kincaid has a higher ceiling, and I could see him developing into a Travis Kelce-type pass-catching weapon.

And I see that same thought process developing in the mock draft market. The Action Network’s Vegas Refund tracked 42 “sharp” mock drafts, with Kincaid’s average draft position being 22.1 while Mayer’s is 23.2.

Per the same numbers, Kincaid has seen his average mock draft position rise from 27.4 on Feb. 27 to 22.1 today. Meanwhile, Mayer has dropped from 21.3 to 23.2.

And, again referencing Vegas Refund’s numbers, Kincaid goes before pick No. 25 in 61% of tracked mock drafts. Meanwhile, Mayer goes after pick No. 23 in 61% of mocks.

Ultimately, I’m looking to back Kincaid on draft night while fading Mayer. I’m expecting Kincaid to be a top-20 draft pick while Mayer falls to the late-20s (maybe the Cowboys or Bengals), and I’m looking to cash in on this angle with all three of these NFL draft props.

Best NFL Draft Prop Bet No. 2

Draft Position — Quentin Johnston over 23.5 (-205)

The wide receiver market has gone down overall throughout the draft process. Most teams seem to believe the top crop of wideouts isn’t as good as the initial mock drafts thought.

But of all the top wideouts, TCU’s Quentin Johnston’s stock has dropped the most. In fact, per Vegas Refund’s tracked mock drafts, Johnston has seen his average mock draft position fall from 15.1 on Feb. 27 to 29.5 today.

There’s a chance Johnston falls out of the first round altogether.

Johnston is simply the least polished of the top wide receiver prospects. There are many skill player options available in the first two rounds, and Johnston’s film shows he needs serious work on his route running and ball-finishing skills, not to mention he has an alarmingly high drop rate (56.4 PFF drop grade).

Ultimately, 76% of Vegas Refund’s 42 mock drafts tracked have Johnston sliding past pick No. 27, and zero have him selected before No. 23. There’s plenty of value in fading Johnston, whose draft stock is continuously dropping.

Best NFL Draft Prop Bet No. 3

Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round — Under 4.5 (+112)

This prop has been a contentious topic in NFL draft betting circles. The odds on this have shifted tremendously over the past few weeks.

Ultimately, however, I don’t see Hendon Hooker being taken in the first round for two reasons.

First, quarterback stocks are falling. There’s a legitimate shot that CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson are no longer top-10 picks, and there’s a cloud of uncertainty surrounding Will Levis.

If any of the top four quarterback prospects are available later than expected, it becomes increasingly unlikely that some quarterback-needy team would take a shot with Hooker.

Second, Hooker is the fifth-best quarterback prospect for a reason, and there is a lot of separation between him and the top-four quarterback prospects.

Hooker is one of the oldest quarterback prospects to enter the draft, at 25. He’s also coming off a torn ACL, which is usually not a big deal, but it could be a deal-breaker for a polarizing prospect at the sport’s most important position.

From an on-the-field perspective, he checks many of the same boxes as other top quarterback prospects. But he also fumbles like crazy (15 fumbles over the past two seasons) and struggles under pressure (43.7 PFF pressure passing grade).

We’ve also seen this story before. A trendy quarterback picks up first-round hype directly before the draft, only to slide back to his original expected draft position. It happened just last year to Malik Willis, who closed with a draft position over/under of 13.5 and fell to pick No. 86.

Of Vegas Refund’s 43 mock drafts tracked, Hooker goes in the first round just 43% of the time. I’d argue that number is still overselling Hooker, as I’d argue it’s more likely that he slides to the third round than gets taken in the first.

I’m willing to bet on that. The top-four quarterbacks will be taken early, and the fifth will have.