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Sports Betting

Chicago Bears draft prediction, odds: how to profit on the first-round pick

Action Network
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A general overall view of AT&T Stadium as Georgia's Roquan Smith is selected by the Chicago Bears during the first round of the NFL football draft, in Arlington, Texas, April 26, 2018. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will step to the podium on Thursday, April 27, 2023, on a giant stage in front of Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri, to announce the No. 1 pick. It'll make it the ninth draft since it left New York, and the event is becoming a major boon for the league, teams and host cities.

A general overall view of AT&T Stadium as Georgia's Roquan Smith is selected by the Chicago Bears during the first round of the NFL football draft, in Arlington, Texas, April 26, 2018. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will step to the podium on Thursday, April 27, 2023, on a giant stage in front of Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri, to announce the No. 1 pick. It'll make it the ninth draft since it left New York, and the event is becoming a major boon for the league, teams and host cities. (David J. Phillip/AP)

As a loyal Chicago Tribune reader, you certainly care about this Chicago Bears draft prediction: Which player will the team select with its first pick?

For the sake of full disclosure, I’m not entirely sure.

That said, I have a decent feel on the Bears’ biggest area of need and the current draft market. Put those two factors together, and there are NFL draft prop bets on the No. 9 pick worth making.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Best NFL Draft Prop Bet No. 1

Chicago Bears First Drafted Position — Offensive Lineman (-180)

The Bears’ offensive line had some success in the run game last season. They were a top-10 run-blocking team by PFF’s run-block grades and finished among the top-10 teams in adjusted line yards, power success rank and power stuff rank.

Those big guys up front were the primary reason the Bears led the league in rushing yards last season, picking up over 3,000 on 5.4 yards per carry.

Justin Fields was the other reason the Bears dominated the ground game. The second-year quarterback fully realized his athleticism, sprinting all over the field for a whopping 1,143 rushing yards.

Despite all this production, the Bears finished the season 3-14.

Why?

Because the NFL is a pass-first league, and Fields hasn’t fully realized his pro-level passing ability. And one of the biggest obstacles in his way is an offensive line that can’t protect him in the pocket.

Fields was sacked a league-high 55 times last season, Chicago’s 13% adjusted sack rate was the highest in the NFL by almost three full percentage points, and the Bears lost 359 yards on sacks alone last year.

The Bears traded away the first overall pick, which likely would’ve been used to take a quarterback, so we know they believe in Fields as a franchise guy. So, the next logical step is to draft players that can protect and support him.

The Bears are weak at offensive tackle, especially right tackle (I’m not a big believer in Larry Borom). Meanwhile, two elite offensive tackle prospects are available in the top half of the first round.

Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. is a laterally quick, fluid blocker with the frame to fit in NFL zone-based schemes. Tennessee’s Darnell White projects as an immediate starter at right tackle with his raw power and body control.

And if the Bears want, you can’t go wrong with Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski. While he projects as a guard, he’s easily the most talented offensive lineman in the draft with immediate Pro Bowl potential.

Ultimately, it makes too much sense for the Bears to draft an offensive lineman with their top overall pick. And there’s value in this currently juiced number.

The Action Network’s Vegas Refund tracked 36 “sharp” mock drafts, and 71% of them had the Bears taking an offensive lineman with the first pick, with 37% selecting Johnson, 20% selecting Wright and 14% selecting Skoronski.

71% implied odds translate to fair betting odds of (-245), so there’s value in the number available at Caesars Sportsbook.

The one major risk to this wager is either Georgia’s Jalen Carter or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson slide down the board, and the Bears decide those players are too talented not to take.

However, given both players are consistently being mocked among the top-six picks, I highly doubt this happens.

Luckily, if you so desire, you can slightly hedge our initial wager at FanDuel Sportsbook by placing smaller wagers on Carter as the No. 9 pick (+600) and/or Wilson as the No. 9 pick (+1200).