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Sports Betting

NFL Draft predictions: target CJ Stroud among our best value bets?

Action Network
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Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Saturday, March 4, 2023. (Michael Conroy/AP)

The 2023 NFL Draft is now less than a month away, and we have NFL Draft predictions to give out before Commissioner Roger Goodell takes the stage in Kansas City.

The toughest thing about betting on the NFL Draft is the inconsistency in the betting markets. Every sportsbook features different markets with wildly different pricing.

However, this just emphasizes how important shopping around for odds is. The price for the same NFL Draft prop can vary wildly from one book to another.

If you need help with shopping or diversifying your account portfolio, read about the best sports betting sites to use here.

I found three NFL Draft best bets I like for this year’s event, with the best price for each wager coming from a different sportsbook. I used FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook for this article.

NFL Draft best bet No. 1

First Overall Pick — CJ Stroud (-270) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With each passing day, it seems more and more likely that CJ Stroud will be the first player selected in this year’s draft. Per Matthew Freedman of Betting Pros, 84% of “sharp mock drafts” have the Carolina Panthers taking Stroud first.

Stroud and Bryce Young are both potential franchise quarterbacks with uncapped potential. However, Stroud is slightly more NFL-ready, as he’s a more refined pocket passer with uncanny poise, excellent footwork and unbelievable accuracy; he threw 41 touchdowns to only six interceptions last year.

Stroud is ready to start Week 1 in Carolina, and the Panthers need that desperately.

However, the biggest issue is that Young is simply too small. At 5 feet 10 and 204 pounds, Young is one of the smaller NFL quarterback prospects of all time, and that comes with inherent risk.

Compared with Young, Stroud has a similar ceiling but a much higher floor, and there’s no question that his height and build will immediately translate to the NFL.

The odds surrounding Stroud as the first overall pick continue to drop, but there’s still value in the -270 number at FanDuel Sportsbook. So, bet on Stroud to be selected first, over Young, as soon as possible.

NFL Draft best bet No. 2

Third Overall pick — Anthony Richardson (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook lists Anthony Richardson with -165 odds to be selected as the third overall pick, while BetMGM Sportsbook has the number at +125.

There’s immediate value in the better number available, as it seems the implied odds of Richardson being selected third are higher than what BetMGM’s odds are implying.

This play is mostly a bet on the Colts trading up one spot with the Cardinals to take Richardson. The Colts desperately need a quarterback, and Jim Irsay’s track record indicates he might be willing to take a risk with a raw prospect such as Richardson.

Richardson made only 13 starts at Florida, but his combination of arm strength and athleticism is almost unprecedented. Dual-action, athletic quarterbacks are becoming more useful in the NFL, and Richardson could be the next Cam Newton.

Stroud and Young will be the first two quarterbacks taken, but I’m willing to bet Richardson is the third, and I’m willing to bet the Colts (or maybe another team) trade with Arizona into this spot to ensure nobody steals this potential franchise cornerstone.

NFL Draft best bet No. 3

First Drafted Cornerback — Christian Gonzalez (-190) at Caesars Sportsbook

The only way that Christian Gonzalez isn’t the first cornerback taken is if someone in the top 10 values Devon Witherspoon more. Witherspoon produced more in college and is the more NFL-ready product.

However, Gonzalez is two years younger, two inches taller and 20 pounds heavier than Witherspoon. Gonzalez has a much higher ceiling.

In fact, Gonzalez could develop into an elite coverage cornerback. He combines unreal size and athleticism with impressive and quickly developing coverage skills.

Per Matthew Freedman of Betting Pros, 92% of “sharp mock drafts” have Gonzalez taken as the top overall corner, above Witherspoon.

Caesars Sportsbook is the only book offering this prop below -200, so hop on immediately.