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Now that we’ve reached the penultimate stage of the NBA playoffs, it’s time to give our Eastern Conference finals MVP prediction.
Boston needed seven games to get past the Philadelphia 76ers. Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum wasn’t going to leave anything to chance as he erupted for 51 points on 17-of-28 shooting from the floor in Game 7.
As for the Heat, they’ll have a few extra days of rest after winning their series against the Knicks in six games.
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The Celtics are heavy favorites in the series despite earning a split in the four regular-season meetings. FanDuel lists Boston at -550, while Miami is available at +390.
When picking a conference MVP, you must start by choosing the winning team. We’ll provide the odds for the potential candidates before identifying where the value lies in this series’ future.
Odds provided by FanDuel
Eastern Conference finals MVP odds
Jayson Tatum -180 / Jaylen Brown +310 / Jimmy Butler +420 / Bam Adebayo +6500 / Malcolm Brogdon +9500 / Derrick White +9500 / Marcus Smart +9500 / Robert Williams +20000 / Al Horford +20000 / Kyle Lowry +23000 / Max Struss +40000 / Gabe Vincent +47000
Eastern Conference finals MVP pick
Jimmy Butler +420
Eastern Conference finals MVP analysis
It’s no surprise that Jayson Tatum is the odds-on-favorite to win the conference finals MVP. Tatum led the league with 2,225 regular season points before picking up an All-NBA First-Team selection.
What’s interesting about his 51-point effort is that he was second-best to Jaylen Brown for much of the series. Tatum had two games where he shot 23.8% or worse, while Brown’s worst performance was when he shot 44.4% from the floor in Game 3.
If you compare the two players from an efficiency perspective, Tatum averaged 29 points on 45.3% shooting, while Brown averaged 22.9 points and shot 54.1% from the floor. Yet, Tatum averaged 21.1 field-goal attempts per game compared with 15.6 for Brown.
As good as Brown is, there’s still a pecking order on this Celtics team, as Tatum will always take the bulk of the shots. Thus, even if you like the Celtics to win the series, it’s unlikely that Brown will surpass Tatum to win the award.
If we look at the Heat, they do have a path, albeit a narrow one, to win the series.
Facing Miami is very different from playing most teams because they’re entirely comfortable slowing the game down and mucking things up. This strategy reduces the number of possessions in the game while at the same time frustrating the opposition.
You can’t simply dismiss the Heat after needing only five games to knock off a Bucks team that was the top overall seed entering the playoffs.
Jimmy Butler was widely responsible for their success in the series, averaging 37.6 points. He cooled off against the Knicks in the next series with 24.6 points through six games.
But Butler has given this Miami team plenty of belief and confidence. His teammates have been able to play above their level even while missing key players such as Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo due to injuries.
The Celtics tend to play down to their opponents. We saw it in the first round when the Hawks forced them to a Game 6. Against Philadelphia, Boston lost Game 1 on its home floor as Philadelphia was without its best player, Joel Embiid.
Miami will also have the coaching edge in this series with Erik Spoelstra joining a short list of only Phil Jackson, Pat Riley and Gregg Popovich, who have at least seven conference finals appearances. Yet, he’s the only one who hasn’t won a Coach of the Year Award.
If the Heat can find a way to pull off this upset and make a seventh NBA Finals appearance, you can be sure that Butler will play a massive role en route to picking up the Eastern Conference MVP award.