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Just as everyone expected, we’re making Heat vs. Celtics series predictions for the Eastern Conference Finals. This year’s playoffs has been crazier than ever.
The No. 8-seeded Heat needed little effort to cruise past the Bucks and Knicks, with Jimmy Butler playing some of the best playoff basketball ever seen.
Yet, the Celtics are monster favorites to win this series, alongside being the current NBA title favorite (+105 on Caesars Sportsbook).
Boston also finished the regular season with the highest point differential and Net Rating in the NBA, proving the Celtics belong in the NBA Finals.
Yet, I can’t shake the feeling that Boston is in trouble.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.
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Heat vs. Celtics series odds
Series Moneyline: Heat (+400) vs. Celtics (-525)
Series Spread 1: Heat +1.5 (+155) vs. Celtics -1.5 (-190)
Series Spread 2: Heat +2.5 (-150) vs. Celtics -2.5 (+125)
Heat vs. Celtics prediction
Miami Heat +2.5 games (-150) | Play to +2.5 (-150)
Heat vs. Celtics series prediction: analysis
From a pure talent and personnel perspective, the Celtics are rightly 5-1 favorites in the Eastern Conference finals. The Celtics have two of the best three players in the series (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown) and are deeper at every position (Al Horford, Rob Wiliams, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, et cetera).
Yet, I can’t shake the feeling that this series will go the distance.
At the minimum, the Celtics are due for two monster letdown games per series.
They dropped Games 3 and 5 against Atlanta, allowing them to shoot 34-for-75 from 3 (45.3%) in the two single-digit losses.
Then, they dropped Game 1 against the Sixers despite Joel Embiid’s injury. Then, the Celts lost Game 4 by one in overtime after 10 turnovers and a flurry of late-game errors.
Those losses were the result of poor execution and coaching. First-year head coach Joe Mazzulla made excellent in-game adjustments during the final two games of the second round, but he’s shown flashes of brutal inexperience.
For example, against Philly, a crucial late Game 4 error was not calling a timeout down one with 19 seconds remaining in overtime. You must stop the game and draw up a play instead of letting Tatum and Marcus Smart play on the fly.
Mazzulla managed to out-coach Doc Rivers over the past few games (not much of an achievement considering Rivers is 16-33 in series-clinching games during his career), but Miami coach Eric Spoelstra will put the 34-year-old through the wringer.
Spoelstra has coached a masterpiece during this playoff run.
His in-game adjustment against Milwaukee to take Butler off the ball and allow Bam Adebayo to run their high-low plays was brilliant. Against the Knicks, his out-of-bounds and set plays were magnificent.
There’s a reason this is Spoelstra’s seventh trip to the Eastern Conference finals. Mazzulla should be shaking in his boots when staring toward the other bench.
So, again, the Celtics have the talent and personnel advantage, but the Heat have significant advantages in coaching, strategic initiative and situational execution. Not to mention the Heat likely won’t give away games like the Celtics should.
I also question the Celtics’ often-shaky ball handling against the Heat’s aggressive ball-pressure perimeter defenders (Butler, Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, et cetera) — Miami finished fifth in the NBA in steals per game during the regular season (7.5).
There’s a reason these two split their four-game regular-season set, with the Celtics turning the ball over an absurd 73 times across those contests (18.3 per game, much higher than their 13.4 season average).
And none of this analysis includes the very likely probability that Butler goes wild and steals a game or two on his own.
Despite the vast talent disparity, this is a coin-flip series. Spoelstra, Butler, the ever-aggressive Heat defense and the sometimes lackadaisical Celtics will push this series to the brink.
I think Heat +2.5 Games (-150) is an absurdly good value bet, even when laying some juice. And the only reason I’m not considering the Heat series ML is the Tyler Herro injury, but I’d recommend re-evaluating that market once more news becomes available.