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Sports Betting

Heat vs. Knicks prediction, odds: Can New York slow down this Miami offense?

Action Network
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Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo dunks in the second half of Game 2 in the NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series against the New York Knicks, Tuesday, May 2, 2023, at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Knicks won 111-105.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo dunks in the second half of Game 2 in the NBA basketball Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series against the New York Knicks, Tuesday, May 2, 2023, at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Knicks won 111-105. (Mary Altaffer/AP)

We have a Heat vs. Knicks prediction as New York tries to keep its postseason alive.

The Knicks are in a 3-1 hole heading into Game 5. Their only win in this series came in Game 2 when Miami’s best player, Jimmy Butler, was sidelined with an ankle injury.

Even in that game, Miami held a five-point lead with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before ultimately losing 111-105.

The good news for the Knicks is that they’re back on their home court. The bad news is that dating to the 2005 season, they’re just 14-23 straight up against the Heat at Madison Square Garden.

It’s normal to see New York draw plenty of attention in the betting market, with this being a must-win scenario. And while I’m not entirely convinced, l can’t bring myself to go against the market in this spot.

Instead, I’ve identified a way bettors can still back Miami without doing so on the point spread.

Heat vs. Knicks odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: MIA +3.5 (-110) vs. NYK -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: MIA (+140) vs. NYK (-165)

Total: Over 209.5 (-110) | Under 209.5 (-110)

Heat vs. Knicks pick

Heat team total: over 102.5 points (-120)

Heat vs. Knicks analysis

This series has been a defensive slugfest, as none of the four previous games closed with a total higher than 210 points. That number is precisely what the bookmakers chose to open with, and the market responded by pushing it down to 209.5 at most sportsbooks.

With the Heat getting 3.5 points as underdogs, they’re projected to make up a lesser part of the total. Thus, their team total is relatively shorter at 102.5 points.

During this postseason, Miami has the fourth-highest offensive rating at 117.1, according to NBA.com. And since this series started, Miami ranks third in that metric with a 114.5 rating.

Miami’s gotten a massive boost from its perimeter play as it’s gone from 27th in 3-point shooting (34.4%) during the regular season to third in the playoffs at 38.5%.

Moreover, Miami is being even more aggressive from beyond the arc in the postseason by shooting an additional 1.9 3-pointers per game.

When you look at the Knicks’ defense, its gone from contesting 19.2 3-pointers during the regular season to 17.1 in the playoffs. One might think those numbers would go up or stay flat at a minimum, given that the postseason is when these games matter the most.

I can’t help but think there’s a bit of demoralization with the Knicks. Following their Game 4 loss, Knicks power forward Julius Randle was despondent when he met the press, saying, “Maybe they want it more — I don’t know.”

When New York makes mistakes, Miami has been there to capitalize. Since the start of the series, Miami has led the playoffs with 20.5 points off turnovers, which is five more points than the team ranked second.

The Heat have scored at least 105 points in each of their nine playoff games this season, and given their efficiency, I like them to go over their team total of 102.5 points.