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Inter Milan vs. Benfica prediction, odds: look to total markets for Champions League matchup

Action Network
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Benfica's Alex Grimaldo eyes the ball during the Champions League quarterfinal, first leg, soccer match between Benfica and Inter Milan at Luz stadium in Lisbon, Tuesday, April 11, 2023.

Benfica's Alex Grimaldo eyes the ball during the Champions League quarterfinal, first leg, soccer match between Benfica and Inter Milan at Luz stadium in Lisbon, Tuesday, April 11, 2023. (Armando Franca/AP)

Ahead of Wednesday’s second UEFA Champions League leg, we’re set to provide an Inter Milan vs. Benfica prediction.

The Italian superpower brings a 2-0 aggregate lead back to their home ground. Now, Inter merely needs a win, draw or one-goal loss to reach the semifinals.

For Benfica, they face an uphill climb in the second leg. The Portuguese outfit need to win by at least three goals in regular time to reach the semifinals, or by exactly two to send the match to extra time.

Inter is a +110 favorite on the three-way moneyline with Benfica priced at +250 and the draw +240. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -110 each way.

Inter Milan vs. Benfica Prediction + Best Bet

Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110 | Bet to -135)

Frankly, I’m shocked the total is set this high given the script of the first leg.

If you’ll remember, the total for the first leg closed at 2.25, with -140 juice attached. Now, with Benfica forced to go for it, you’re telling me these teams are a quarter-goal better?

I’m not buying it.

In the first leg, Inter limited Benfica to a mere 0.9 expected goals on target (xGOT), with 0.79 of that coming in the closing moments of the game. Up until that final movement, Benfica produced only four shots worth more than 0.1 xG, according to fotmob.com.

Now, that same Benfica attack has to face an Inter defense that is virtually impenetrable both at home and when playing with a lead.

Through 16 Serie A home fixtures, Inter has allowed a mere 7.86 non-penalty xGOT and 44 shots on target. Even if you shrink the sample down to matches against Roma, Napoli, Milan, Juventus and Fiorentina, bettors will find Inter are conceding only 0.54 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

Further, four of those five matches finished under 2.5 non-penalty goals with the sample averaging 1.47 combined non-penalty xGOT between Inter and their opponents.

Moreover, in ALL games this season when Inter are playing with a lead, they’re allowing opponents to create only 1.05 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to understat.com.

That will spell trouble for the Benfica attack, which creates 1.12 npxGOT per 90 minutes fewer in Liga Portugal, a league ranked below Serie A in UEFA coefficients, when playing away from home.

At the same time, don’t expect an explosion from the Inter attack in this match.

A goal from the hosts will essentially end the tie, but bettors should also feel confident in the Benfica defense.

In the first leg, the hosts conceded only 0.92 non-penalty expected goals and 1.31 npxGOT, again per fotmob.com. With the visitors presumably holding the lion’s share of possession, back them to limit Inter’s attack to keep them at bay.

For those reasons, back the total to stay under 2.5 at -135 or better.