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Sports Betting

Lakers vs. Nuggets series prediction, odds: Can the Lakers slow down Jokic?

Action Network
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Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Phoenix. The Suns defeated the Nuggets 129-124.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Phoenix. The Suns defeated the Nuggets 129-124. (Matt York/AP)

We have a Lakers vs. Nuggets series prediction ahead of the Western Conference finals.

Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue for either team heading into Game 1. Denver will have six days between games following their series victory over the Suns, while the Lakers will have just one fewer day of rest after ending the Warriors’ quest to win back-to-back championships.

Now that we’ve reached the conference finals, FanDuel has an even more extensive offering regarding its series betting menu. However, only one option stands out to me, and this wager is primarily based on how I expect the Lakers to approach this series from a defensive mindset.

Odds provided by FanDuel

Series price

Lakers: (+130) / Nuggets: (-155)

Series spread

Lakers: +1.5 (-192) / Nuggets: -1.5 (+154)

Alternate series spread

Lakers -1.5 (+210) / Nuggets +1.5 (-265): Lakers -2.5 (+590) / Nuggets +2.5 (-950): Lakers +2.5 (-385) / Nuggets -2.5 (+290)

Correct series result

Lakers 4-0 (+1600) / Lakers 4-1 (+900) / Lakers 4-2 (+400) / Lakers 4-3 (+550) / Nuggets 4-0 (+1100) / Nuggets 4-1 (+410) / Nuggets 4-2 (+550) / Nuggets 4-3 (+350)

Correct score after three games

Lakers 2-1 (+186) / Lakers 3-0 (+980) / Nuggets 2-1 (+120) / Nuggets 3-0 (+470)

Top points scorer

Nikola Jokic -140 / Lebron James +400 / Anthony Davis +500 / Jamal Murray +600 / Michael Porter Jr. +10000 / D’Angelo Russell +10000 / Aaron Gordon +13000

Austin Reaves +13000 / Rui Hachimura +19000

Exact games in series

four games (+650) / five games (+250) / six games (+190) / seven games (+180)

Game/series double

Lakers win Game 1 and series: (+280) / Lakers win Game 1 and Nuggets win series: (+550) / Nuggets win Game 1 and series: (+105) / Nuggets win Game 1 and Lakers win series: (+340)

Lakers vs. Nuggets series pick

Top points scorer: Nikola Jokic -140

Lakers vs. Nuggets analysis

After a 2-10 start to the campaign, the Los Angeles Lakers are a series victory away from a trip to the NBA Finals. It’s been quite a turnaround for a team practically assembled at the trade deadline.

While the Suns parted with the key personnel pieces to land Kevin Durant, the Lakers’ decision to prioritize depth has proved sound.

The Lakers built out their roster in terms of depth and added players who could contribute immensely on the defensive end of the court. We saw their defense on full display in the second round as they kept the Warriors under 40% shooting from the floor in three of their four wins.

According to NBA.com, the Lakers finished 13th in defensive rating during the regular season with a 113.2 value. But if you evaluate them from the trade deadline, they ranked third with a defensive rating of 110.9.

And if we factor in this postseason, they have the best defensive rating at 106.5.

I was thoroughly impressed with how the Lakers defended Warriors superstar Stephen Curry in the second round. Curry averaged 26.7 points, shooting 34.3% from beyond the arc; both numbers were below his season average.

You often hear that the best players tend to elevate their game with more scoring and production in the playoffs. The fact that the Lakers prevented Curry from doing so speaks to their defensive acumen.

However, I think Los Angeles will take a different approach in this series. Instead of slowing down the opposing team’s best player, I think they’ll focus on stopping the supporting cast around Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic.

After averaging 24.5 points during the regular season, Jokic has increased his scoring average to 30.7 points per game during the playoffs. At 6 feet 11 and 284 pounds, Jokic can wear on his opponents throughout the game with his size.

In the three games in which he went up against Anthony Davis, the Lakers center, he averaged 18.3 points — roughly 7.5 points below his season average.

With LA trying to shut down Jokic’s supporting cast, look for Jokic to be able to get whatever he wants on offense. And while I love the Lakers’ chances to pull off another upset, my best bet is to back Jokic to be the top points scorer in the series at -140 odds.