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Sports Betting

Lakers vs. Warriors prediction, odds: LA player prop offers the best value for Game 5

Action Network
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Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James, left, congratulates Lonnie Walker IV after the Lakers defeated the Golden State Warriors 104-101 in Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal Monday, May 8, 2023, in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James, left, congratulates Lonnie Walker IV after the Lakers defeated the Golden State Warriors 104-101 in Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal Monday, May 8, 2023, in Los Angeles. (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

We have a Lakers vs. Warriors prediction as Golden State returns home facing a 3-1 deficit in the series. For a veteran team such as the Warriors with so much postseason experience, it’s been startling to watch some of their execution in the fourth quarter of these games.

Whether it’s Jordan Poole taking an ill-advised deep 3-pointer in the waning seconds of Game 1 or Draymond Green turning the ball over with nine seconds remaining in Game 4, those are the errors we haven’t seen with this Warriors team lately.

Los Angeles has won the close games in this series, while the other two contests were blowouts.

The Lakers deserve a ton of credit for their ability to withstand some of the Warriors’ huge runs. Defensively, Los Angeles has limited Golden State to 109.25 points in this series.

But now, with the Warriors facing elimination, they’re as high as 7.5-point favorites after opening at -5. Thus, there’s a heavy tax you’ll have to pay to back Golden State.

In this preview, I’ll share why I’m bypassing the point spread altogether and taking a different route for my best bet.

Lakers vs. Warriors odds

Odds provided by FanDuel

Spread: LAL +7.5 (-110) vs. GSW -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: LAL (+260) vs. GSW (-320)

Total: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)

Lakers vs. Warriors pick

Lonnie Walker over 8.5 points (-122)

Lakers vs. Warriors analysis

The biggest question for me in this game: Which version of Golden State will we get? There’s no question this Warriors team can blow the Lakers right out of the building, especially if they get hot from the perimeter.

However, the Lakers have exploited the Warriors’ lack of size on the interior by almost doubling them in attempts (25.8 to 12.8) from the free-throw line. You won’t get a better uncontested shot in basketball than standing 15 feet away from the rim at the charity stripe.

Another issue for the Warriors is they’re losing ground in these games when their starters are out of the game. According to NBA.com, the Warriors’ bench has a plus/minus of -1.9 against the Lakers in this series.

In contrast, the Lakers’ bench has a plus/minus of +2.3.

One of the bench players deserving of praise is Lakers guard Lonnie Walker IV. Walker is averaging 12 points during this series and almost outscored the Warriors in the fourth quarter by himself with 15 of the Lakers’ 27 points.

Golden State managed just 17 points in the quarter.

Walker began the season as a starter but was relegated to the bench after suffering some injuries. Yet, Walker was playing key minutes in the fourth quarter, and the ball seemed to keep finding him when the Lakers needed a key bucket down the stretch.

He’s seen his minutes rise from 12 to 24 to 27 over the past three games.

It all started when Walker shot 4-for-8 from the floor in the Lakers’ 127-100 blowout loss in Game 2. Even when the game was all but decided, he was still competing, prompting Lakers head coach Darvin Ham to reward him with more minutes.

Whether this game is close or a blowout, you can expect that Walker will get significant minutes on the court. Hence, given his usage projection, I suspect his scoring prop of 8.5 points is too low.

When you put it all together, this prop offers more upside than deciding which team to back on the point spread.