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Sports Betting

Liverpool vs. Arsenal odds, prediction: how we’re betting Sunday’s EPL fixture

Action Network
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Liverpool's manager Jurgen Klopp greets supporters after the FA Cup 4th round soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Liverpool at the Falmer Stadium in Brighton, England, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023.

Liverpool's manager Jurgen Klopp greets supporters after the FA Cup 4th round soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Liverpool at the Falmer Stadium in Brighton, England, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023. (Alastair Grant/AP)

Ahead of Sunday’s prime English Premier League fixture, we’re set to provide a Liverpool vs. Arsenal prediction.

Liverpool sits 10 points behind fourth-placed Manchester United for the final Champions League spot after dropping two games in a row against Bournemouth and Manchester City.

Meanwhile, Arsenal holds an eight-point cushion over Manchester City for the title, but the Gunners have a game in hand. Arsenal has won seven straight games.

Arsenal is a +140 road favorite on Sunday with Liverpool priced at +170 and the draw at +270. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -165 to the over.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal Prediction

Liverpool Draw, No Bet (+100 or better)

This is a tricky match to handicap given both sides have overperformed at their respective venues for this fixture.

At home this season, Liverpool owns a +25 non-penalty goal differential and has only conceded nine times. However, that’s nowhere close to their non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) differential and their npxGOT against, which sit at +13.74 and 13.39, respectively.

That said, Arsenal has simultaneously overperformed when playing away from home. Through 14 road efforts in the Premier League, manager Mikel Arteta’s side holds a +20 non-penalty goal differential against a +6.91 npxGOT differential, per fotmob.com.

What’s even more concerning with the league leaders is that they haven’t faced a true road test in quite some time. In their last road game against a fellow Big Six side (Tottenham), Arsenal produced a 2-0 victory but lost the npxGOT battle 2.55 to 1.75.

Expand the sample beyond that match to include trips to Chelsea and Manchester United and bettors will find Arsenal owns a -2.08 npxGOT differential.

Liverpool has proved capable of earning home results against top-tier competition this season. Their most recent success came in a 7-0 thrashing of Manchester United in a match that saw Liverpool create 3.59 npxGOT.

Additionally, although they overperformed based on xGOT, Liverpool earned a deserved result against Manchester City at home based on expected goals. For that match, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.0, per fbref.com.

Plus, their three home matches against Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea saw Liverpool allow an xGOT rating per shot of 0.21, down from a season average of 0.27.

If the Liverpool defense can hold up against Arsenal, that could lead to some opportunities on the offensive end against an Arsenal defense primed for negative regression away from home.

Through 14 road fixtures, Arsenal has allowed nine non-penalty road goals against 13.47 npxGOT against, per fotmob.com.

Based on those results, back the Reds to do no worse than a point at Anfield as they seek a Champions League spot.