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Sports Betting

Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction: look toward total for Tuesday’s EPL fixture

Action Network
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Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Liverpool at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, April 1, 2023.

Liverpool's Mohamed Salah, left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Liverpool at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, April 1, 2023. (Jon Super/AP)

In advance of Tuesday’s marquee English Premier League fixture, we’re set to provide a Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction.

Both sides enter the midweek on the heels of bad losses. Chelsea dropped all three points at home in a defeat to Aston Villa, then followed it up by sacking manager Graham Potter.

As for Liverpool, their road woes continued in a 4-1 drubbing at Manchester City. With the loss, they sit eight points out of a Champions League spot.

Chelsea is a +145 favorite on Tuesday with Liverpool priced at +175 and the draw at +240. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -130 to the over.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool Prediction

Total Over 2.5 Goals (-130)

Don’t be fooled by the 0-0 score line in the first meeting at Anfield — that match was ripe with chances for both offenses.

While it’s slightly concerning each team failed to hit the target at a high frequency — the sides combined for 0.66 expected goals on target (xGOT) off five shots on target, per fotmob.com — the expected goals tally was much higher.

All told, Liverpool and Chelsea combined for 3.05 expected goals and four big scoring chances.

A change in venue is quite meaningful for Tuesday’s match as Liverpool’s road defense continues to prove lackluster. Over the weekend, they allowed 3.87 xGOT to an Erling Haaland-less Manchester City and have conceded 1.78 non-penalty xGOT per 90 minutes away from home this season.

The even scarier part? Liverpool is a negative regression candidate defensively away from home, having conceded 22 non-penalty goals against 24.88 npxGOT.

Shrink the sample down to their four road matches against fellow Big Six sides and bettors will find Liverpool has conceded 2.78 npxGOT per 90 minutes while conceding nine goals off 11.1 npxGOT, again per fotmob.com.

Chelsea’s attack remains a positive regression candidate, particularly at home. Through 28 EPL fixtures, the Blues have scored 26 non-penalty goals against 31.12 npxGOT, including 14 non-penalty goals against 15.5 npxGOT at home.

Even though they were held goalless at home against Villa on Saturday, their metrics suggest a goal should have come. For the entire match, Chelsea created 1.92 xGOT off eight shots on target.

Further, over their past three home matches, Chelsea is creating 1.41 npxGOT per 90 minutes, up from a season-long average of 1.11 at Stamford Bridge.

At the same time, this is a Chelsea defense that has conceded prime chances at home to fellow Big Six clubs. Through four matches at home against Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City, the Blues have surrendered 1.34 npxGOT per 90 minutes.

Add in that Liverpool’s attack has created 1.32 npxGOT away from home this season and there should be contributions on each end of the pitch.

Take the over on Tuesday so long as it’s available at -135 or better.