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Sports Betting

Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest predictions, odds: our best bet for this EPL fixture

Action Network
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Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White, left, and Liverpool's Andrew Robertson vie for the ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, at the City Ground, in Nottingham, England, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022.

Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White, left, and Liverpool's Andrew Robertson vie for the ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, at the City Ground, in Nottingham, England, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022. (Mike Egerton/AP)

Ahead of Saturday’s English Premier League fixture, we’re set to provide a Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.

The host Liverpool side enter this fixture fresh off a 6-1 thrashing of Leeds United, but remain nine points out of a Champions League spot.

Forest, on the other hand, remains in the thick of the relegation battle. The Tricky Trees find themselves in the bottom three on goal difference with only seven games remaining in the season.

Liverpool is a heavy -550 favorite at Anfield with the draw priced at +650 and Forest available at +1400. The total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -145 to the under.

Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction

Liverpool 1H Goal-Line (-1.5, +200 | Bet at +200 or better)

Take Liverpool -1 instead to get push protection on a one-goal win in the first-half, but I won’t fault anyone who wants to chase a higher payout.

Across their past four matches at Anfield, Liverpool have locked an immovable object. In home matches against Everton, Wolves, Manchester United and Arsenal, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side is 2-1-1 (W-L-D) in the first half, with the lone defeat coming to league-leaders Arsenal.

In those matches, Liverpool hold a +1.07 expected goal differential with one goal of that record coming from the match against Everton, a comparable opponent to Nottingham Forest.

But, if you look at Liverpool’s four matches against teams with a bottom-five expected goal differential in the Premier League, bettors will find the record is much better. In qualifying home matches against Leeds United, Southampton, Everton, Leicester City and Bournemouth, the Reds are 4-1-0 (W-D-L).

Further, of those four wins, Liverpool have covered a 1.5 goals in two matches.

Now, they get a shot at a Forest team that has looked abysmal away from home.

Manager Steve Cooper’s side enters this match with the third-worst expected goal differential away from home and have created the second-fewest expected goals away from home.

But, if you look at their record against the league’s best away from home, the results are even worse.

Against the top eight in terms of expected goal differential, according to fbref.com, Forest is 0-2-4 (W-D-L) in the opening 45 minutes. Of those four losses, three have come by two or more goals.

Plus, if you look at the two Forest first-half draws, both were undeserved according to expected goals. Across all six matches, Forest own a -0.82 non-penalty expected goal differential per 45 minutes, according to fotmob.com.

Add in that Forest just conceded 3.5 expected goals to Manchester United at home and I expect the Liverpool offense, which has created 5.8 expected goals over the last two fixtures, will run rampant.

Finally, this is also a revenge spot for Liverpool, who dropped all three points at Forest. Thus, back the hosts to score early and often and no worse than a first-half win.