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Sports Betting

Heat vs. Knicks prediction, odds: Tired legs a factor in Game 6

Action Network
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New York Knicks' Jalen Brunson (11) drives past Miami Heat's Caleb Martin (16) during the second half of Game 5 of the NBA basketball Eastern Conference playoff semifinal Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in New York. The Knicks won 112-103.

New York Knicks' Jalen Brunson (11) drives past Miami Heat's Caleb Martin (16) during the second half of Game 5 of the NBA basketball Eastern Conference playoff semifinal Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in New York. The Knicks won 112-103. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

Ahead of tipoff on South Beach for a potential NBA series decider, we’re set to provide a Heat vs. Knicks prediction and best bet.

The Knicks earned a home win in Game 5 to prolong the series, but now face an uphill battle to force a Game 7. The Heat are a perfect 2-0 straight up in games played in Miami this series and 4-0 straight up at home in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Knicks are 2-3 straight up away from home.

In Game 6, the Heat are 5.5-point home favorites with the total set at a measly 208 points. Those interested in the Knicks can take the points or +188 on the moneyline.

Heat vs. Knicks Prediction & Best Bet

Total Under 208 Points (-110)

Both recreational and professional bettors appear aligned on this total, which has seen downward movement from the opening number of 209 points.

According to the Action Network PRO Report, tickets are ever-so-slightly in favor of the under with 55% of all tickets coming in on that market. However, the money percentage — traditionally an indication of which side professional bettors are backing — is much more lopsided.

As of this writing, 99% of all dollars are hitting the under, a staggering figure and one that bettors should unquestionably follow.

Beyond those stats, there’s a lot of underlying data suggesting teams will play a low-scoring contest on Friday.

During the regular season, both teams played extremely slow paces. The Knicks ranked 26th in pace with a 97.4 rating with the Heat ranked 29th in that category with a 96.3 pace, according to dunksandthrees.com.

Those tendencies have extended into the playoffs with the Knicks playing at a pace of 93.1, the second-slowest rate of remaining teams, and the Heat playing at a pace of 97.83, the fifth-slowest rate, per NBA Advanced Stats.

Just in this series, the pace is coming in at 93.6, a number well below both teams’ regular-season averages.

Truthfully, what this market comes down to is the Knicks’ ability to limit the Heat offense.

If one unit has established itself as consistent in this series, it’s the Heat defense. Of the remaining playoff teams, they own the second-best defensive rating over the past five games and the third-best rating for the entire playoffs.

Plus, they’ve held the Knicks under 105 points in a majority of the five games with New York’s two successes coming at home. In the two games played in Miami, the highest point total New York achieved was 101 points.

In positive news for the Knicks defense, the Heat have yet to eclipse 109 points in the series. But, if we’re to stay under this number, the Knicks will have to improve upon their points against average of 106 points.

Given each side has tired legs, though, we’ll bank on that happening and opt for the under in Game 6.