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College Basketball Betting

Miami vs. Texas prediction: best bet for Midwest Region championship game

Action Network
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Texas guard Tyrese Hunter brings the ball down court Xavier in the first half of a Sweet 16 college basketball game in the Midwest Regional of the NCAA Tournament Friday, March 24, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo.

Texas guard Tyrese Hunter brings the ball down court Xavier in the first half of a Sweet 16 college basketball game in the Midwest Regional of the NCAA Tournament Friday, March 24, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (Jeff Roberson/AP)

We have a Miami vs. Texas prediction as the Hurricanes and Longhorns prepare to battle Sunday for a trip to the Final Four.

Both teams rolled past their Sweet 16 opponents, with Miami beating Houston by 14 and Texas beating Xavier by 12. However, this game should finish as a much-closer affair.

Miami loves to run the floor with talented guards while Texas works in the midrange with tough, lengthy two-way wings. Schematically, it’s a fascinating matchup.

Texas is laying two possessions. Can Miami win three consecutive games as an underdog?

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Read on for the odds alongside my pick and prediction for Miami vs. Texas.

Miami vs. Texas odds

Spread: Miami +3.5 (-104) vs. Texas -3.5 (-118)

Moneyline: Miami (+146) vs. Texas (-178)

Total: Over 149.5 (-105) | Under 149.5 (-110)

Miami vs. Texas prediction

Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas is an elite transition defense. The Longhorns are the third-best transition defense in the country by both ShotQuality and Synergy’s metrics.

That should prove mighty important against Miami, which gets out in transition at a top-20 rate nationally. The ‘Canes are a transition-reliant offense, leveraging uber-athleticism into fast-break points.

Miami scored a whopping 1.5 transition points per possession against Houston, per Synergy. While Houston is a solid transition defense, Texas should have more luck defending those sets.

Meanwhile, I expect Texas to exploit Miami’s defense like the Longhorns exploited Xavier’s defense.

Texas uses Marcus Carr to create on-ball and then has wings Timmy Allen and Jabari Rice create off-ball. The Longhorns then pass the rock until they identify a mismatch, dominating defenses in the midrange area.

Texas used this style to exploit isolation mismatches against Souley Boum and Adam Kunkel. In this game, look for Texas to try and target Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller.

Miami ranks 360th in midrange points per possession allowed, per ShotQuality’s metrics. That could lead to Texas having a field day since it is the better two-way team with more talented two-way players, and I trust the Longhorns’ isolation and midrange mismatches.

The one worry is that Miami’s pick-and-roll exposes Texas’ shaky ball-screen defense. But I’d rather trust Texas’ defensive switches against Miami’s pick-and-roll than Miami’s defensive switches against Texas’ isolation midrange attack.

So, I’m going to be betting on Texas here. I found a Longhorns -3.5 (-118) available at FanDuel Sportsbook, but I’d bet Texas at -4.5 (-110) or better.