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College Football Betting

Mississippi State vs. Illinois predictions: best bet for Reliaquest Bowl

Action Network
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Mississippi State coach Mike Leach confers with quarterback Will Rogers (2) during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022.

Mississippi State coach Mike Leach confers with quarterback Will Rogers (2) during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP)

Any talk of Mississippi State vs. Illinois predictions must begin with an acknowledgment of Mike Leach’s passing.

The former Texas Tech, Washington State and Mississippi State head coach revolutionized college football with his unique air raid attack, turning around the fortune of three programs and countless quarterbacks. He was a two-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year, the 2008 Big 12 Coach of the Year and the 2018 AFCA Coach of the Year.

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It’s truly regrettable Leach will no longer be around to lead the Bulldogs.

Alas, there is still a bowl game to be played, and (rightfully so) both teams look pumped up to be playing.

There are very few missing players on both sides of the ball, and Raymond James Stadium will be the host of two teams with impressive resumes.

So, what should we expect from this game? And how should bettors attack this matchup?

Mississippi State vs. Illinois odds

Spread: Mississippi State -1.5 (-110) vs. Illinois +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Mississippi State (-120) vs. Illinois (+100)

Total: Over 46 (-110) | Under 46 (-110)

Mississippi State vs. Illinois predictions

First-half Under 21 (-110) BetMGM Sportsbook

It’s difficult to handicap this game. It’s hard to imagine how the Bulldogs players are feeling following the passing of their beloved head coach.

On the one hand, the Bulldogs could be motivated. On the other hand, possibly distracted. Either headspace could be forgivable.

Regarding personnel, defensive coordinator Zach Arnett will serve as interim head coach for this bowl game. At the same time, Mississippi State had one defensive starter opt out in safety Collin Duncan.

Meanwhile, Illinois is missing three starters, defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown, alongside star running back Chase Brown.

I know two things about this game.

First, Illinois is a great defense. The Illini finished fourth nationally in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play allowed and third in Pass EPA per play allowed (per CFB Graphs), often shutting down opposing passing attacks with elite coverage schemes.

Second, the air raid often is rusty following a long rest. For what it’s worth, Leach was just 3-9 against the spread in bowl games since 2006, per Bet Labs, and his system is still in place.

Despite Illinois’ opt-outs in the secondary, I think the Illini will win the initial battle against the air raid simply due to Bulldog rust. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs struggle to create offense in the first few drives.

Additionally, despite the air raid’s reputation, the Bulldogs were a defense-first team this season. Mississippi State finished top 35 nationally in EPA per play allowed while finishing sub-85 in EPA per play created.

Meanwhile, we know what Illinois will do. The Illini are a rush-heavy team (20th in FBS rush rate, 58.1%) that is missing its top running back. So they might need a few drives to adjust to their backup running backs, and the Illini will run a slower-paced attack no matter what.

I expect a sluggish start for both teams and a very low-scoring first half.

There are advantages for both offenses, and I think Illinois quarterback Tommy DeVito is due for a big game in particular, but I’m expecting both sides to open up the playbook in the second half.

The first half should fall well short of three scores, and that’s a bet I’m willing to make.