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With the 2023 NFL Draft almost here, we’ve compiled two predictions for this unique event.
Recently, betting the draft was a remarkably different experience than maybe five to 10 years ago. If a team had the top overall pick and knew who they’d select, the organization had no problem informing the media in advance.
In some instances, it was conceivable to know who the first few selections in the draft would be. However, teams are much more tight-lipped nowadays, with some even centralizing their decision-making to one or two people within the organization.
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Scouts are much less involved in the decision process to avoid any possible leaks. The NFL has also stepped in, advising teams not to disclose their picks so the event can remain suspenseful.
Each year, it feels like the draft gets more and more secretive, with teams now even utilizing tradecraft techniques. One strategy teams use is disseminating harmful information about a possible target to dissuade other teams from selecting the player they plan to draft.
In other words, unless you’re involved in the decision-making process, one cannot be entirely sure about the information these teams leak out. Thus, I plan to limit my risk by focusing on a few plays with longer odds to yield a decent return.
NFL draft best bets:
Exacta #1: Young / Anderson / Wilson +550
Exacta #2: Young / Anderson / Johnson +1200
NFL draft top three picks analysis
A reporter who’s covered the NFL for 45 years described projecting this first round as possibly the most unsettled he’d ever seen in his career. That’s because nine of the top 11 teams with a pick have a relatively new coach or general manager tasked with making this monumental organizational decision.
As a result, they don’t have enough of a track record that displays their possible tendencies.
The Carolina Panthers are a team that might not fit in that category with third-year general manager Scott Fitterer. And while Fitterer is working with a newly hired head coach in Frank Reich, the betting market seems pretty confident about them selecting quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick.
Young’s odds are as high as -5000 over at FanDuel.
But after the first pick is where things start to get pretty dicey.
The Texans have the second pick, and after recently hiring former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, the consensus is that they prefer to use their selection on a defensive player.
Houston can pick between two edge rushers in Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson. Early in the draft process, Anderson was regarded as the best player, and he’s starting to climb back up the board.
The third pick belongs to the Cardinals, and they could either go defense or offense. The latest news is that quarterback Kyler Murray is lobbying for more protection on the offensive line, which could signal the Cardinals drafting Ohio State offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr.
However, Arizona might not be able to pass on Wilson if he’s available, given his freakish size at 6 feet 6 and 271 pounds.
Since teams can always still trade up, I’m not too locked in on any particular player. As a result, I’ll look to swing for the fences here by keying Young and Anderson as the top two picks while adding in Wilson and Johnson in separate parlays.
An exacta ticket of Young, Anderson, and Wilson would net +550 while Young, Anderson and Johnson are priced at +1200.