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Sports Betting

NFL Draft predictions, odds: 2 targets for first player bets

Action Network
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Ohio State football wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba runs a drill at the school's NFL Pro Day in Columbus, Ohio, Wednesday, March 22, 2023.

Ohio State football wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba runs a drill at the school's NFL Pro Day in Columbus, Ohio, Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (Paul Vernon/AP)

It’s draft week, and we have NFL Draft predictions for the first-drafted-player markets.

In this market, we’re looking for betting value on the first player to be drafted at certain positions, and I’ve got plays for the first-drafted wide receiver and first-drafted defensive player.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

NFL Draft Prediction No. 1

First Drafted Wide Receiver — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-300)

There are questions about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, including a messy injury history and lack of elite speed.

But Smith-Njigba is the safest bet among the wide receiver groups, and I’m comfortable laying the juice in this market with him for a few reasons.

First, the stock of every other wide receiver has dropped.

Quentin Johnston’s draft position over/under opened at 24.5 and has risen to 27.5 at some books. He’s not a great route runner, and teams consistently question his concentration and physicality (especially on 50/50 balls).

Jordan Addison’s stock has also dropped with a poor showing at the combine. He’s undersized and lacks strength and power.

Zay Flowers has seen his stock rise, but he’s way undersized for today’s NFL, and I’m projecting him to go over his draft position over/under of 24.5.

Meanwhile, despite his elite speed, Jalin Hyatt is too risky to be a high first-round pick.

Smith-Njigba is still the best route-runner in the class (and one of the collegiate route-runners ever) with legendary high school pedigree and college production.

Even though he missed most of 2022, Smith-Njigba’s one full season at Ohio State was legendary. His 2021 is the best Big Ten pass-catching season ever (single-season yards record with 1,606), and he capped it with a 347-yard performance in the Rose Bowl.

Smith-Njigba’s grades backed it up, as he was PFF’s highest-graded wide receiver in 2021

He’s also not undersized, like many of the other products, and projects as an immediate NFL starter.

Again, Smith-Njigba is the safest bet for NFL teams drafting a wide receiver.

Almost every mock draft and big board has Smith-Njigba as a top-20 prospect and pick, and the only top-20 wide receiver in the NFL Draft. And his stock only improved after a strong combine showing, especially after he ran a 4.53 40-yard dash while proving he’s healthy.

Among Vegas Refund’s 43 mock drafts tracked, Smith-Njigba has an estimated draft position of 15.2, while every other wide receiver checks in north of 22.5.

We’re also getting solid value with the number provided at Caesars Sportsbook. FanDuel Sportsbook has this same prop listed at -430, while BetMGM has it listed at -500.

While it’s tough to lay this much juice, I believe Smith-Njigba is the absolute surest bet among NFL wide receivers, and the mock draft and betting market agrees with me. Therefore, I feel comfortable with Smith-Njigba on draft day.

NFL Draft Prediction No. 2

First Drafted Defensive Player — Will Anderson Jr. (+115)

Tyree Wilson has been steamed in the market and is now the favorite to be the first drafted defensive player.

The Texas Tech product is probably the best defensive athlete in the NFL draft, weighing 260 pounds with a 4.60 40-yard dash. He also finally produced in his final season with Texas Tech, recording 61 tackles and seven sacks across 10 games.

Wilson is also not Will Anderson Jr., and I’m not buying the idea that NFL teams are flipping their ratings of these top-two prospects.

Anderson is the only true freshman to start at linebacker under Nick Saban, and he became a Freshman All-American. He followed it up with back-to-back Unanimous All-American Selections, Nagurski Trophies, and SEC Defensive Player of the Year selections.

In 15 games during 2021, Anderson led the FBS in tackles with 102 and sacks with a whopping 17.5.

Anderson’s collegiate production is miles ahead of Wilson’s, and it’s likely why Anderson is the higher-rated product on most big boards. Plus, all of Anderson’s production came in the SEC, a significantly tougher conference than the Big 12.

And my wager isn’t simply coming on a hunch. Among Vegas Refund’s 43 mock drafts tracked, Anderson has an estimated draft position of 3.4, while Wilson checks in at 5.3. The mock draft market still believes Anderson will be taken over Wilson.

At the minimum, however, we’re getting solid value by betting on Anderson at a plus-money price. Recent reports indicate that the Texans are likely to draft one of Anderson or Wilson at No. 2, with no indication the team is leaning one way or the other. If we assume a 50% chance of either player being selected, Anderson is the plus-expected value wager.