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NFL Draft predictions, odds: reacting to rising Will Levis draft stock

Action Network
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FILE - Kentucky quarterback Will Levis (7) throws to a receiver during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Knoxville, Tenn. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are projected to go anywhere from the top 5 to top 15 picks in this draft.

FILE - Kentucky quarterback Will Levis (7) throws to a receiver during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Knoxville, Tenn. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are projected to go anywhere from the top 5 to top 15 picks in this draft. (Wade Payne/AP)

The NFL Draft betting market is one of the most volatile markets in the world. So, making NFL Draft predictions can be impossible.

For example, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis randomly garnered significant betting action on Tuesday, drastically dropping his odds to go No. 1 overall.

What happened? And is this a situation where we buy the steam or fade a now-overvalued Levis?

NFL draft predictions: Will Levis draft stock steamed

Believe it or not, an anonymous Reddit post is the suspected reason for the Levis draft stock steam.

An account by the name of u/SaleAgreeable2834 posted this message on the r/sportsbook subreddit early Tuesday:

“Will Levis is currently +4000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman, he’s telling friends and family Carolina will in fact take him on Thursday. You’re welcome.”

Legitimate or not, bettors scrambled to take advantage of the “news,” and wagers poured in on Levis in the No. 1 overall pick market. As a result, the odds for Levis to go first overall to the Panthers shot from longer than 40-to-1 to less than 10-to-1 in hours.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Levis listed at +800 to go first overall, BetMGM Sportsbook at +650, and Caesars Sportsbook at +400.

It’s worth mentioning the odds shift is a result of many smaller wagers rather than any large bets.

“There’s definitely been an uptick in the number of bets on Will Levis this morning, but no huge bets,” a Caesars Sportsbook spokesperson told David Purdum of ESPN.

However, the action still caused sportsbooks to drop the market’s price until bettors stopped betting on Levis to go No. 1 overall.

NFL Draft predictions: Is there value in buying or fading Levis?

Speaking as an analyst rather than a journalist, this seems ludicrous.

The NFL Draft betting market is an information market, and this information doesn’t seem very credible. The anonymous Reddit account had never posted on the website before Tuesday, and a Panthers beat reporter (Joe Person of The Athletic) denied the reports publicly on Twitter.

So, to put it conservatively, I don’t buy it.

Unfortunately, there’s not much actionable advice to give about Levis in the NFL Draft market. The odds movement came entirely in the first overall pick market, and there’s currently no market to bet on Levis “not” to be the first overall pick (and if there were, there’d be no value in the juiced number).

Meanwhile, the draft position over/under odds for Levis hasn’t moved significantly, with most books listing the number at 4.5, significantly juiced to the under. Many mock drafts have Levis falling in the first round, but a similar amount have four NFL quarterbacks going among the top four picks.

So, unfortunately, no value has been opened up in that market following this “report.”

Again, speaking as an analyst, I’m looking to fade Levis in the NFL Draft market. His collegiate production doesn’t align with his draft stock, even if he has an NFL build and a quick release, and I believe NFL teams will accurately scout him as a low-ceiling prospect.

Unfortunately, I don’t see an actionable market to fade him.