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Sports Betting

Nuggets vs. Suns predictions, odds: player props include a rebound effort from Jokic

Action Network
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Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives on Denver Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) during the first half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Phoenix.

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives on Denver Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) during the first half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Phoenix. (Matt York/AP)

It’s a pivotal Game 5 Tuesday in Denver as we’re set to provide a pair of Nuggets vs. Suns predictions and best bets.

Rather than focusing on the game side or total, though, our approach will cover the ample player prop markets available to bettors. I’ve selected both bets on the Nuggets, given their relative consistency in terms of performing at home.

Odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Nuggets vs. Suns Player Prop Prediction No. 1

Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds (-122)

Would you believe Jokic grabbed only four rebounds in Game 4?

He was certainly distracted by scoring 53 points on 30 shots, but this shapes up as a good buy-low spot with the change in venue.

Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but Jokic should see more rebounding opportunities in Game 5.

The Nuggets, 18th in adjusted defensive rating during the regular season, are unquestionably better defensively at home. Per teamrankings.com, the Nuggets held opponents to 7.1 fewer points per game at home during the regular season and 19.6 fewer points per game during the playoffs.

Add in Phoenix saw an offensive decline away from home during the regular season and bettors should expect more missed shots from the Suns in Game 5.

Based on those trends, it should come as no surprise that Jokic cleared this benchmark in four of five home games this playoffs and we’ll back him to do so again in Game 5.

Nuggets vs. Suns Player Prop Prediction No. 1

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Points (-115)

Pope cleared this total on the hook in Game 4 and bettors should expect another solid performance in Game 5.

During the playoffs, Caldwell-Pope has largely proved more efficient in Denver. Through five home games, he’s averaging 11.4 points per game and has cleared this benchmark in four of those contests.

Away from home, he’s averaging only 7.75 points per game and has gone over this total in two of four games.

Those trends are largely indicative of season-long trends for Caldwell-Pope, who averaged 0.6 more points per game at home. Plus, add in two regular-season home games against the Suns and bettors will find the Georgia product has cleared this number in all four home contests against the Suns.

Phoenix has struggled to defend away from home. During the regular season, Phoenix allowed 3.5 more points per game away from home, per teamrankings.com.

The Suns also own the second-worst defensive rating of remaining playoff teams, so bettors should expect ample opportunity for all the Nuggets’ supporting cast.

Our prop projection has Caldwell-Pope slated for 12.65 points in Game 5. For that reason, take his point total over.