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College Football Betting

Ohio State vs. Georgia predictions: best bet for College Football Playoff matchup

Action Network
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Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) looks for an open receiver in the first half of the Southeastern Conference Championship football game against the LSU Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022 in Atlanta.

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) looks for an open receiver in the first half of the Southeastern Conference Championship football game against the LSU Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022 in Atlanta. (John Bazemore/AP)

When making Ohio State vs. Georgia predictions, you have to wonder if the spread even matters.

There have only been two College Football Playoff semifinal games where the spread has played a role, per The Action Network. Most of these games have turned into blowouts and bloodbaths.

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Given how Kirby Smart built his program up, there’s a good chance Georgia blows Ohio State out of the water. However, I see some advantages for Ohio State in this game, and I believe the Buckeyes can keep it close.

But the best bet in this College Football Playoff game lies elsewhere.

Ohio State vs. Georgia odds

Spread: Ohio State +6.5 (-105) vs. Georgia -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Ohio State (+220) vs. Georgia (-275)

Total: Over 62.5 (-110) | Under 62.5 (-110)

Ohio State vs. Georgia predictions

Over 62.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Everybody loves to bring up the defense when it comes to Smart’s program. The vaunted Bulldogs defense is the best we’ve seen in decades, as they led the nation in points allowed per game last season and are second this season.

But not nearly as many people talk about the offense, which has quickly become elite. Georgia is 10th in scoring this season, dropping almost 40 points per game.

Stetson Bennett might be the most underrated quarterback in the country, as he leads an offense that’s first nationally in Pass Success Rate, per The Action Network. He also has two monster tight ends in Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers, and Smart calls 12 personnel as much as anyone to get them both involved.

Georgia has an aerial attack that can rival anyone. Plus, the Bulldogs’ fourth-rated offensive line (per Football Outsiders’ Line Yards metric) plows for a running back room that averages 5.5 yards per carry.

Ohio State has a very talented defense, but Georgia rolled through almost every SEC defense it faced. Nobody can stop the Georgia tight end room, so the Bulldogs will get theirs.

However, this handicap is based more on Ohio State’s offense and the Buckeyes’ advantages.

Surprisingly, Georgia has failed to produce a pass rush this season, ranking 111th in Sack Rate (per The Action Network) and 76th in Pro Football Focus’ Pass Rush grades. The Bulldogs will be trying to get past a consensus top-10 Buckeye offensive line led by two superstar tackles.

CJ Stroud will have plenty of time in the pocket to attack downfield. Additionally, let’s not let the Michigan game blind us and remember that Stroud’s arm was the catalyst for the nation’s best offense by yards per play (7.2), per Team Rankings.

Finally, the Buckeyes are underdogs for the first time this season. Look for a super-aggressive game plan early from Ryan Day, and I expect points to be put on the board in a hurry.

Get ready for a high-flying, high-scoring, pass-heavy College Football Playoff semifinal. This should be one of the season’s best games, and I’m ready to cash in on that by betting the over at BetMGM Sportsbook.

I’d play the over up to 64.5 (-110).