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College Football Betting

Penn State vs. Utah prediction: how we’re betting the Rose Bowl

Action Network
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Utah quarterback Cameron Rising throws a pass against Southern California during the second half of the Pac-12 Conference championship NCAA college football game Friday, Dec. 2, 2022, in Las Vegas.

Utah quarterback Cameron Rising throws a pass against Southern California during the second half of the Pac-12 Conference championship NCAA college football game Friday, Dec. 2, 2022, in Las Vegas. (Steve Marcus/AP)

The Grandaddy of Them All has arrived, and we’re set to offer a Penn State vs. Utah prediction before tonight’s Rose Bowl.

Penn State, who finished the season with a 10-2 record, reaches this prestigious game as a function of both Michigan and Ohio State reaching the College Football Playoff. As for Utah, they won the Pac-12 Championship over USC to finish 10-3 on the season and reached the Rose Bowl as conference winners.

As it stands, the Utes are a consensus two-and-a-half-point favorite on Monday with the total set at 52.5 points. Those interested in the Nittany Lions can take the points or +110 on the moneyline.

Penn State vs. Utah Prediction + Best Bet

Total Over 52.5 Points (-110)

I could see this game going either way from a side perspective, but do think we could be in for more points than expected.

We’ll begin with Utah’s offense, a unit that is absolutely loaded in the passing game and has established itself as a unit that can rack up points in a hurry. Entering this game, the Utes sit eighth of 131 Division I teams in points per game and 15th in offensive efficiency, per footballoutsiders.com.

While the sample is limited in terms of Utah’s outputs against quality defenses, it’s still worth noting they scored 42 points against an Oregon State defense that is only nine spots below Penn State in terms of defensive efficiency.

In Penn State’s game against Michigan, the team that’s closest to Utah in terms of offensive efficiency (ninth vs. 15th), the Nittany Lions allowed the Wolverines to rack up 41 points, albeit on the road.

While the absence of Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. shouldn’t matter that much, it should allow enough of an opportunity for Utah’s wide receiver corps to move the ball and score points in Pasadena.

All that said, this is simultaneously a Penn State offense that has gotten on the board at a rapid rate against defenses superior to Utah’s. At home against Ohio State, head coach James Franklin’s side scored 31 points against a Buckeyes defense that is nine spots ahead of Utah in terms of defensive efficiency.

Additionally, the Nittany Lions scrapped their way to 17 road points against Michigan (13 spots better than Utah in defensive efficiency), which was the second-most points the Wolverines allowed at home this season.

Given Utah’s defensive record against quality opponents — they allowed 32 points per game in four combined games against Oregon, USC and UCLA — I suspect the Utes will concede plenty of chances to Penn State’s offense.

Take the over here and root for chaos so long as it remains at 52.5 or better.