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College Basketball Betting

Princeton vs. Creighton prediction: Tigers try to continue upset trend

Action Network
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Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) in the first half of a second-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament Sunday, March 19, 2023, in Denver.

Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) in the first half of a second-round college basketball game in the men's NCAA Tournament Sunday, March 19, 2023, in Denver. (David Zalubowski/AP)

We have a Princeton vs. Creighton prediction as the Cinderella Tigers look to keep the slippers on.

Only one No. 15 seed ever made the Elite Eight — last season’s Saint Peter’s Peacocks. The Tigers will look to repeat that feat.

However, coach Mitch Henderson had better not overlook Creighton. The No. 6-seeded Bluejays were woefully under-seeded in my eyes, and they are a dark horse Final Four contender.

There’s a reason the Bluejays are laying nearly double digits on the spread in the Sweet 16. However, that spread might be a tad high for Princeton.

Princeton vs. Creighton odds

Spread: Princeton +9.5 (-102) vs. Creighton -9.5 (-120)

Moneyline: Princeton (+385) vs. Creighton (-335)

Total: Over 138.5 (-105) | Under 138.5 (-115)

Princeton vs. Creighton prediction

Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Tigers run the well-known Princeton offense, derived from Pete Carril’s Princeton teams. The Princeton offense is a four-out motion with elite big man Tosan Evbuomwan dominating the paint and racking up assists dishing to the perimeter.

The offense worked perfectly against Arizona and Missouri, as the Tigers forced both up-tempo teams to play in the half-court and then obliterated them on the glass and perimeter.

Unfortunately, Creighton is a completely different opponent.

The Bluejays are dominant on the glass, comfortable in the half-court and take away the 3-point line better than most teams. The Bluejays are 13th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and ninth in 3-point rate allowed, per KenPom.

Additionally, Creighton runs more ball screens than either of Princeton’s past two opponents, as the Bluejays are top-50 in pick-and-roll frequency and top-40 in pick-and-roll efficiency, per ShotQuality. That will take advantage of Princeton’s lack of lateral quickness, as the Tigers are sub-250 in pick-and-roll defensive efficiency.

Creighton is also playing as well as any team in the tournament, running over fellow Power Six opponents NC State and Baylor in a pair of nine-point, first-weekend victories. As mentioned, Creighton was under-seeded because of a poor nonconference showing, but that corresponded with Ryan Kalkbrenner’s injury.

With Kalkbrenner on the floor, Creighton is as good as any team in the nation. Per Bart Torvik, the Bluejays are 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency since mid-January.

So, Creighton is undervalued and is a bad situational mismatch for a Princeton team off back-to-back improbable upsets. Unfortunately, that bodes poorly for Cinderella.

Princeton had the strategic advantages to pull off two incredible upsets, but the Tigers won’t have that in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Creighton’s overwhelming size and athleticism advantage should take care of the rest.

Expect a blowout, double-digit victory for the Bluejays, and bet on Creighton -9.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook accordingly.