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Sports Betting

Suns vs. Nuggets prediction, odds: Game 5 teaser on tap

Action Network
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Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, right, looks on during the first half of Game 3 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Friday, May 5, 2023, in Phoenix.

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) shoots as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, right, looks on during the first half of Game 3 of an NBA basketball Western Conference semifinal game, Friday, May 5, 2023, in Phoenix. (Matt York/AP)

We have a Suns vs. Nuggets prediction as the series returns to Denver tied at two.

Initially, the Nuggets looked like they would coast to a Western Conference finals appearance after taking a 2-0 lead in the series. However, those who doubted the Suns must remember the adage that a series doesn’t start until one team loses on its home court.

And now, with the series essentially boiling down to a best-of-three, we might need to go the full seven games before determining a winner.

After losing the last two games on the road, there’s plenty of belief in the betting market that the Nuggets will return home and take care of business.

In this preview, I’ll share my thoughts on that assertion and explain how a change in the Suns’ personnel could impact the total.

Suns vs. Nuggets odds

Odds provided by BetRivers

Spread: PHX +6 (-109) vs. DEN -6 (-112)

Moneyline: PHX (+195) vs. DEN (-235)

Total: Over 227.5 (-108) | Under 227.5 (-113)

Suns vs. Nuggets pick

2-leg, 5-point teaser (+120): Nuggets -1 / over 222.5 points

Suns vs. Nuggets analysis

Although the Nuggets lost both games in Phoenix, I never once felt like they were utterly outclassed. With a bounce here and there, the Nuggets could have easily stolen one of those games on the road.

If you look at the net rating between the two teams, the Nuggets still have the edge with a 3.5-point mark. That number is slightly below my projection for the game as my blended model has the Nuggets ranging between a 4.5- and 5-point favorite.

The bookmakers opened with the Nuggets as four-point favorites, but that number has already been bet to -6.

Laying six points in this spot feels a bit steep when you figure that the Suns have finally figured out their bench. Phoenix got 40 points from its backups in Game 4, compared with just 11 points from Denver’s reserves.

I’ve always believed that coaches must instill confidence in their bench by committing to putting those players in the game. But what often happens is that if a bench player struggles, his performance could reflect poorly on the other players, thus hindering their opportunities.

Suns head coach Monty Williams finally got some production from his reserves because he was brave enough to go deeper into his bench to find a solution.

However, as good as their performance was in Game 4, bench players tend to struggle when playing away from their home arena in a hostile environment.

As a result, I don’t believe we’ll see the same production level from the Suns’ bench in Game 5.

Nonetheless, I expect the Suns to continue playing quickly to get easier buckets in transition. This strategy is crucial because those shots help reserve players build their confidence.

Suns backup point guard Cameron Payne is now running the offense with Chris Paul (groin injury) still sidelined. Thus, I don’t see any reason for the Suns to deviate from that style after winning back-to-back games.

Based on my projections, I’ll look to swing the odds in my favor even more by targeting a teaser for this game. At BetRivers, you can grab a two-leg, five-point teaser at +120, reducing the Nuggets’ point spread to -1 and the over to 222.5.