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College Football Betting

TCU vs. Georgia prediction: Horned Frogs still overlooked as double-digit underdogs

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TCU players celebrate after the Fiesta Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game against Michigan, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Glendale, Ariz.

TCU players celebrate after the Fiesta Bowl NCAA college football semifinal playoff game against Michigan, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022, in Glendale, Ariz. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)

We have a TCU vs. Georgia prediction in Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship.

The Horned Frogs have fully embraced their underdog role in this modern-day depiction of David vs. Goliath.

TCU entered the CFP with the longest title odds (200-1) since the inaugural 2014 season.

Yet, the Horned Frogs somehow crashed the party and now seek their first national title since the 1938 campaign.

TCU has had its share of doubters this season. But if you peel back the layers, I think you’ll find a team deserving of an opportunity to play in this championship game.

TCU vs. Georgia odds

Spread: TCU +13.5 (-110) vs. UGA -13.5 (-110)

Moneyline: TCU (+375) vs. UGA (-500)

Total: Over 62.5 (-114) | Under 62.5 (-106)

TCU vs. Georgia pick

TCU +13.5

TCU vs. Georgia analysis

TCU racked up 488 yards of offense in its 51-45 CFP semifinal victory over Michigan. The Wolverines were regarded as among the best defensive units in college football.

According to cfb-graphs.com, Michigan ranked fourth in expected points allowed (-11.56). And against the run, the Wolverines ranked fourth, allowing -0.227 points per play.

Yet, TCU punished Michigan with 6.4 yards per carry and 263 rushing yards on the day.

One thing I think that might be overlooked in this game is how balanced TCU’s offense is.

The Horned Frogs didn’t have a great day throwing the football (14-of-29 passing), yet they managed to stay ahead of the chains with their running game.

TCU converted 50 percent (8-of-16) of its third downs while limiting the Wolverines to 23% on their attempts (3-of-13).

If we turn to Georgia, although it limited Ohio State to 3.7 yards per carry, the Buckeyes still finished with 119 rushing yards in the game.

Ohio State also converted more third downs and won the time of possession battle (32:36 to 27:24). The key takeaway from the game was how susceptible Georgia could be in defending against the pass as Ohio State had 348 of its 467 total yards through the air.

The Buckeyes suffered a massive loss in the game when Marvin Harrison Jr. entered concussion protocol following a vicious hit near the end of the third quarter.

Despite missing the entire fourth quarter, Harrison led the team with two receiving touchdowns and finished second with 106 receiving yards.

While Harrison is widely touted as one of the best wide receivers in the game, TCU’s Quentin Johnston isn’t too shabby either.

According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, NFL scouts expect the 6-foot-4, 215-pound product to be the first wide receiver selected in the upcoming draft.

Six of TCU’s 14 completions went to Johnston as he torched Michigan for 163 receiving yards.

It’s worth noting that entering the playoffs, Georgia’s defense ranked 23rd in EPA against the pass, whereas Michigan ranked seventh.

If the Bulldogs plan to double Johnston, they’ll be a bit lighter in the box, which should create some opportunities for TCU to run the ball successfully.

The pressure in this game is squarely on Georgia as it seeks a second national title in as many years.

After crunching the numbers, my model makes Georgia closer to an 11-point favorite, showing roughly a 2.5-point edge, with TCU at +13.5.