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College Football Betting

TCU vs. Michigan prediction: Why the running game could key Fiesta Bowl total

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Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh watches the scoreboard during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Hawaii, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh watches the scoreboard during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Hawaii, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (Jose Juarez/AP)

The College Football Playoff will finally commence on Saturday as the TCU Horned Frogs take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl.

TCU managed to get into the playoffs despite suffering its first loss this season in the Big 12 Championship.

Some might view this matchup as a step up in class for TCU, and I don’t think that sentiment is far off.

In this preview, I’ll share why the Wolverines seem well-positioned to counter what the Horned Frogs might offer on offense.

TCU vs. Michigan odds

Spread: TCU +8 (-113) vs. MICH -8 (-108)

Moneyline: TCU (+235) vs. MICH (-305)

Total: Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)

TCU vs. Michigan pick

under 58.5

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TCU vs. Michigan analysis

While there’s no question that it’s been a good year for the Horned Frogs, I don’t think they faced a team with the same caliber of defense that the Wolverines have.

When we talk about the best defensive teams in the country, the Georgia Bulldogs are the ones who have set the bar over the past few seasons.

But what if I told you this Wolverines’ defense might be just as good, if not better?

After all, Michigan has better numbers than Georgia regarding opponent yards per game (271.1 vs. 305.8), points allowed (13.4vs. 13.8), allowed points per play (.206 vs. .214), opponent EPA (-140.16 vs. -133.86), and opponent red zone attempts (2.2 vs. 2.3).

In the final game of the regular season, the Wolverines limited Ohio State’s high-powered offense to 23 points while forcing two turnovers.

I thought Michigan did an excellent job of completely switching their defense whenever the Buckeyes got inside the red zone.

Moreover, during the game, the broadcasters discussed how Michigan’s defensive coordinator Jesse Minter had specific third-down packages for the game, which he had never featured earlier in the season.

And with almost four weeks to prepare for this game, I imagine Minter will have something special cooked up for the Horned Frogs and quarterback Max Duggan.

I think Michigan’s defense can win on third down, as Game on Paper ranks TCU 71st in success rate. In this spot, the Wolverines rank 16th, allowing opponents to convert 32.42% of their opportunities.

If TCU has any success establishing the run, I think a false sense of security will play right into what Michigan wants to do on third down.

TCU’s offense is much better through the air, so the Wolverines will be happy to slow the game down.

Don’t expect Michigan to line up and try to get behind the defense as Ohio State did. The Horned Frogs know that they’re susceptible to the run, so that’s where Michigan will attack first.

It’s worth noting that Michigan ranks eighth with a run play rate of 61.67%.

Look for Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh to return to his bread and butter in pounding the rock against a TCU defense that’s 75th in total EPA (6.77) and 90th in success rate (42.2%) against the run.

After assessing all the inputs, my model projects a total of 56.82 points, giving me a slight edge with 58.5 still available in the market.

Thus, I’ll play this game the total whole before it drops any further.