Tennessee vs. Clemson prediction: Orange Bowl opt-outs create betting angle

We’ve reached the meaty part of the college football bowl season as the Tennessee Volunteers take on the Clemson Tigers in the Orange Bowl, and we have a Tennessee vs. Clemson prediction.

Although Tennessee has fewer players than Clemson set to miss the game due to opt-outs, injuries, or the transfer portal, it’ll have some pretty big shoes to fill.

In this preview, we’ll highlight all the key personnel changes and assess which team has the edge heading into Friday night.

Tennessee vs. Clemson odds

Spread: TENN +6 (-110) vs. CLE -6 (-110)

Moneyline: TENN (+185) vs. CLE (-225)

Total: Over 63.5 (-110) | Under 63.5 (-110)

Tennessee vs. Clemson pick

Tennessee +6

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Tennessee vs. Clemson analysis

Volunteers starting quarterback Hendon Hooker had a Heisman-worthy season with 3,135 passing yards, 430 rushing yards, 32 combined touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in a Week 12 loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Backup quarterback Joe Milton III replaced Hooker and started in Tennessee’s 56-0 shutout victory over Vanderbilt on the road.

Generally, when you see such a lopsided score line, you’d probably surmise that the quarterback had a big day at the office with hundreds of passing yards and possibly five or six touchdowns.

However, Milton completed just 11-of-21 pass attempts for 147 yards and one touchdown. The reality is it was the Volunteers running game that did the heavy lifting, with 513 yards on the ground.

Tennessee runs the ball well, as TeamRankings lists it 15th in yards per game and 18th in yards per carry.

The Volunteers will likely need to lean on that running game with wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

As for the Tigers, they’ll have their own issues at the wide receiver position with Beaux Collins, Decari Collins and EJ Williams not available for the game.

On defense, the Tigers will have a massive void to fill with edge rusher Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson opting out for draft preparations. Murphy is a top-five prospect in most NFL mock draft boards, while Simpson is also viewed as a first-round talent.

With both teams having to overcome the absence of key players on both sides, I don’t see either team having a lopsided advantage in this contest. Had Hooker been available to play, my model would’ve made the Volunteers around a six-point favorite.

But with Tennessee now catching six points across the board, this 12-point move seems a bit egregious.

There’s simply too much value at the current number to pass up grabbing the points with the Volunteers.