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Sports Betting

Warriors vs. Lakers prediction, odds: target the total in this Game 6 matchup

Action Network
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Los Angeles Lakers forward Jarred Vanderbilt (2) shoots against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry during the first half of Game 5 of an NBA basketball second-round playoff series Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in San Francisco.

Los Angeles Lakers forward Jarred Vanderbilt (2) shoots against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry during the first half of Game 5 of an NBA basketball second-round playoff series Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in San Francisco. (Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP)

We have a Warriors vs. Lakers prediction as the series shifts to Los Angeles, with Golden State trying to force a Game 7.

The Warriors lived to fight another day after defending their home court with a 121-106 victory. Draymond Green helped set the tone for Golden State by scoring the team’s first basket on a 27-foot 3-pointer.

He finished with 20 points while shooting 5-for-5 from the free-throw line.

Golden State might need a similar production from Green in Game 6 to keep its season alive. Anthony Slater of The Athletic reports that the Warriors’ small forward Andrew Wiggins is questionable to play after suffering a left costal cartilage fracture in his rib cage.

Even though the Lakers aren’t the ones facing elimination, I would argue that there’s just as much pressure on them to close this series out at home after building a 3-1 lead following Game 4.

As a result, I expect a tightly contested matchup with both teams giving a max effort defensively.

Warriors vs. Lakers odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: GSW +2.5 (-110) vs. LAL -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline: GSW (+120) vs. LAL (-140)

Total: Over 221.5 (-105) | Under 221.5 (-115)

Warriors vs. Lakers pick

ALT total under 222.5 points (-130)

Warriors vs. Lakers analysis

Wiggins’ injury is undoubtedly a blow for the Warriors, given that he’s third on the team in scoring during the postseason with 17.6 points per game.

Along with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Wiggins is one of only three Warriors players averaging double figures in this series.

Curry is a player you don’t have to worry about because he will always give you solid numbers. However, Thompson has struggled mightily with his shot, averaging 9.5 points on 6-of-23 in the past two games.

Usually, the Warriors could turn to Jordan Poole off the bench. But he’s also shot poorly, averaging just 5.5 points over the past four games.

Outside of Curry, it’s tough to envision where Golden State will get its points in a hostile environment.

The Warriors are averaging 103.5 points in four road games against the Lakers this season. That’s almost 14 points below their season average when playing on the road.

During these playoffs, the Lakers have the best defensive rating at 106.6. When they’re at home, that number improves to 96.9.

According to our Action Labs database, the total in a Game 6 is 90-65 to the under for 19.88 units.

These numbers are generally razor-thin when you figure how good of a job the bookmakers do when setting the total for postseason games. We’ve already lost some value after it opened at 223.5 before being bet down to 221.5.

As a result, I’ll look to grab an alternate line on the total by playing it under 222.5 points at -130 odds.