TCU vs. Georgia predictions: two player props we’re betting in National Championship

It’s finally time to make TCU vs. Georgia predictions in the college football National Championship game.

While most bettors will attack the side and total for this game, I’m targeting the player prop market. There’s always value to be found in the player prop market, which is usually less efficient than other markets.

But two two props have value at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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TCU vs. Georgia Best Prop Bet No. 1

Brock Bowers over 64.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Georgia has the best tight end room in the country. The Bulldogs use 12 personnel as often as any team in the country, and the dynamic duo of Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington usually dominates.

Bowers finished the season as Stetson Bennett’s top receiver, leading the team in receptions (56), receiving yards (790) and receiving touchdowns (six). Although Washington wasn’t as productive, he still posted 426 yards on 27 receptions.

This is bad news for TCU. Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 defense is vulnerable to tight ends, given none of their defensive backs are big enough to contain tight ends. The undersized unit likely struggles to contain the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Bowers and the 6-foot-7, 265-pound Washington.

However, I’m targeting Bowers because Washington is dealing with an injury. Per Dawg Nation, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is hopeful that Washington will play, but his status is still up in the air.

If Washington doesn’t play or isn’t 100 percent, Bowers will get even more targets than usual. Given TCU’s weaknesses on defense, I expect Bowers to take full advantage of his opportunities in the National Championship game.

Bowers had at least 60 receiving yards in six of his 15 games this season, but that includes both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff semi-final game against Ohio State. He also twice eclipsed 100 receiving yards.

Look for Bowers to have a huge day and bet on him accordingly.

TCU vs. Georgia Best Prop Bet No. 2

Quinten Johnston over 4.5 receptions (-148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Georgia’s defense is elite. However, I think the Bulldogs are slightly overvalued on that side of the ball, mostly due to a lackluster pass rush and a sometimes-leaky secondary.

Georgia’s defense was relatively shredded in both postseason games by two mobile quarterbacks that work in the short-to-intermediate area. Both LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud produced over 500 yards of offense.

Max Duggan is a mobile quarterback that loves to work in the short-to-intermediate area, and his favorite target is Quinten Johnston.

Johnston finished the season with more than 1,000 yards on 59 receptions, including six touchdowns. Duggan almost won the Heisman, and a big part is because of the explosive plays that Johnston produced.

Surprisingly, Johnston had a slower start to the season, averaging just 28.5 receiving yards per game in the first four weeks. But he slowly heated up and has averaged 104 yards per game over the last four weeks, including compiling a combined 302 receiving yards in TCU’s two postseason games.

Here’s our opportunity because the slow start has dragged Johnston’s season-long numbers down. Therefore, we’re getting a slightly depressed number in the betting market.

Per Collin Wilson of The Action Network, Bet Labs projects Johnston for 4.9 receptions on Monday night, giving us value on the number posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Expect Johnston to have a monster day, especially with volume. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get double-digit targets underneath Georgia’s cover-four zone defense.